A conclave of leaders of prominent socio-cultural groups in the nation met in Abuja last week to endorse PDP’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, as their candidate with a few weeks to go to the presidential elections. These are not lightweights in the ethno-regional constituency of Nigerian politics. In persons and in full colour, leaders of Afenifere, Northern Elders Forum, Ohanaeze-Ndigbo, Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) and the Middle Belt Forum comprehensively denounced the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari and threw their support behind Abubakar. The nation went through a tremor of sorts at the development. Atiku said he was moved to tears at the news. APC spokespeople went crazy denouncing the groups. They would have sung their praises as responsible, patriotic leaders if they had endorsed Buhari instead.
As endorsements go, this should register as a major boost for Atiku. Mind you, I said should, not must. The deluge of denunciations, disclaimers and disputations which followed the endorsement will suggest that the PDP’s candidate has scored a late, winning goal, and the Buhari administration is desperate to cancel it. APC’s spokespersons pulled no punches in discrediting the groups, calling he elders and leaders serial collaborators in plunder of the commonwealth, repeat offenders against the Nigerian people, unrepentant losers against Buhari, opportunists who are aggrieved that the nation has left them behind, and assigning them many more disparaging attributes. It is possible that I have tidied up the outpouring of many of the verbal assaults that streamed out from the APC camp immediately the news of the endorsement hit the public. On this ground alone, it is safe to assume that it was a blow that hurt, and the dismissal of these major regional groups as irrelevant and inconsequential is comparable to the boxer who grins after he receives a damaging blow to the chin.
Of course, it could well be the case that the APC camp is just nervous and jittery, as it rightly should be at this stage of the contest. It is worrying enough that polls are being rolled out from seemingly credible sources which insist that Buhari will lose to Atiku. APC says these strange ‘voodoo’ pollsters should be dismissed. As if to reinforce this point, a newspaper which supports it published its own poll which puts Buhari at a landslide victory point over Atiku. Then APC rolls out its own endorsement from retired senior servicemen, a move that will not pass the test for sensitivities for national security, but at this stage of an increasingly bitter campaign, who is worried about fine points around security? There will be splinter groups that will be pushed forward to twist knives into fights to split groups and reduce their impact. The groups know that they will arrive at the elections battered by backlash, but they will be proud that they landed the first, painful blows in a fight they should expect a major counter attack.
If there are people in APC who have not entirely lost their heads over the endorsement at this stage, they must be calmly panicking over these groups that appear to have overcome decades of history of fighting each other over election candidates, sharing the nation’s resources or addressing the nation’s basic structure. The groups say they have sent signals that they will scrutinise candidates many times in the recent past, but it is possible APC’s watchmen did not notice them. Just think: four years ago, Ohanaeze-Ndigbo and PANDEF stood solidly behind President Jonathan against Buhari, a tradition they had sustained against Buhari in all elections. Buhari had rewarded this hostility with choice appointments and projects for the regions, but it appears their elders have not been told of this. Afenifere rooted for Buhari, enlightened enough to salivate at a political contraption that put Tinubu and Yoruba people in the driving seat of a possible Buhari administration. Northern Elders Forum overcame its deep-seated suspicion of General Buhari to throw its weight behind him, even though it immediately started raising red flags around an administration they thought will change the plummeting fortunes of the North. The inherently-ambivalent Middle-Belt Forum was obliterated by the Buhari tornado which swept away ethno-religious boundaries where it fished.
If this seemingly formidable consensus against Buhari’s second term is interrogated even slightly, it will yield an interesting character. It could reveal that this is more an elite conspiracy against Buhari than a national consensus. President Buhari has played the populist card very well, staking his entire political career on creating the impression that he represents a nightmare for wealth, privilege and power that is not his. His hard core of followers see him almost entirely in this light, even if the evidence on the ground suggests that he has, himself, built up elitism to a whole new level in the manner he runs an administration of a handful with a major grab of power and national resources. Nonetheless, an elite consensus is not something you dismiss easily. It brought Obasanjo and the PDP to power. It kept Buhari away from the presidency for 12 years. In his ranks today, there are the elite who were neck deep in the conspiracy to keep him away from power. In the run up to the 2011 elections, Tinubu toyed around with Buhari and his regional CPC for a while, and then threw it away and installed Nuhu Ribadu on his platform with instructions to prevent Buhari from becoming president. He then dumped Ribadu and supported Jonathan’s PDP to defeat Buhari. Today, Tinubu and Ribadu are in the inner recesses of Buhari’s elite circle.
Atiku should know the terrain enough not to put too much store on these endorsements as solid political capital. Their symbolism is significant, but they still have to be translated into votes in an election where passions will be key motivations. Buhari’s multitudes will be spurred into new levels of frenzy with propaganda that looting the nation is now wearing worn-out ethnic garbs. If there shrills of indignation is slightly mooted, it will be because they are also burdened by some of the grievances of the elite: a weakening economy and insecure lives.
