Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed that the number of Nigerians living in poverty stands at over 133 million; a figure which represents 63 per cent of the nation’s population. ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU in this report, speaks to economic and financial experts on how Nigeria can get it right.
The NBS figure was presented during the launch of the Poverty Index (MPI) Survey based on a survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the National Social Safety-Nets Coordinating Office (NASSCO), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI).
The NBS stated that the survey, which sampled over 56,000 households across the 36 states of the Federation and the FCT, was conducted between November 2021 and February 2022.
It was discovered that 65 per cent of the poor, amounting to 86 million people, live in the North while 35 per cent, nearly 47 million live in the South.
It stated, “Over half of the population of Nigeria are multi-dimensionally poor and cook with dung, wood or charcoal, rather than clean energy. High deprivations also appeared nationally in sanitation, time to healthcare, food insecurity, and housing.
“In general, the incidence of monetary poverty is lower than the incidence of multidimensional poverty across most states.”
According to its findings, the North-west has the highest number of people in poverty at 45.49m followed by the North-east 20.47m, North-central at 20.19m, South-south at 19.66m, South-west 16.27m and South-east 10.85m.
On the state profile, it said Kano has the highest number with 10.51m while the least is Abia with 1.12m people.
Inflation, insecurity contributory factors
On why Nigeria recorded this magnitude of increase, an economic expert, Yusha’u Aliyu, said inflation and insecurity were the major contributors. In a phone chat with this reporter, Aliyu revealed that many international organizations had warned the Nigerian government.
He said, “There has been indication by world financial bodies, especially the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warning Nigeria on certain economic measures, which they highlighted that poverty is increasing, especially when you use the poverty perception index. The government on its own did reduce inflation and when inflation is going high, not for one year not for two years, but consecutively going upward, if you check from January 2022, when inflation was 15% to November, inflation is 20.77%.
“So, when you now look into the food inflation, you realize that it is even above 20.77%, about 23%. So, when you will now check the income level of all individuals and categories, you will realise that inflation has played a greater role in pushing people outside their comfort zone because their purchasing power has been eroded when your purchasing power continues to be eroded. It is simply telling you that your income can no longer take care of a household and that is exactly how people are slumping into the poverty cycle.
“Insecurity has also contributed for more than 10 years; Boko Haram has devastated several communities. There is no measure that is geared towards taking people back to their settlement, not even going back to their businesses. We have not exhausted that one, banditry came in. And banditry is not only pushing people out of their communities, but also taking control of their wealth, and therefore coming back to start at zero square. And that is exactly why a lot of poverty is recorded in Zamfara. A lot of poverty is recorded in Kaduna, and a lot of poverty is recorded in Katsina. So looking at this, also, you will now realise that social insecurity has played another greater role in pushing people to go below the poverty line.
“Aside from that one to our governors, who have taken so much relief funds, and not putting it into target infrastructures that will keep people in their homes, that can improve their businesses that can create additional businesses.”
How to curb the anomaly
Also speaking via a telephone conversation with Blueprint Weekend, a global economic consultant, Prof. Ken Ife, recommended additional investments in the social programmes to change the tide.
Prof. Ife said, “First of all, what does multi-dimensional poverty measure? That’s the first thing. Now, it is measuring a lot of indices around poverty. For example, it is measuring sanitation, measuring access, access to the hospital, measuring housing, and homelessness. And it is measuring monetary poverty.
“So, in all of these measurements, their minimum threshold is 26%. So if you score more than two to 26%, then you’re judged to be in that particular indicator. So, how were the scores so high and terrible in all these indexes?
“All these indices try to measure poverty incidents, when you grab them together, we rank 62.9%. In the case of poverty, today, you look at the poverty intensity when you say that people are below the poverty line. So, the intensity is how intense it is, we are like scoring 40%, with both of them still higher than 26%, which is a couple of points.
“Now, what should the government be doing in all of these indices? The indices are many, but the one that strikes you is that 63% of these people that are in this multi-dimensional poverty are in six states, as Sokoto, Bayelsa, Jigawa, Kebbi, Gombe and Yobe, will call them the poorest states.”
Govt’s role
Prof Ife added that, “What is the government going to be doing in those areas where the poverty incidents are highest? That is the question. That’s question number one. But you have to come back to what are the attributes, you have to get more particular so which groups are feeling it more? So which groups are most vulnerable? school-aged children 29% of school-aged children are not in school.
“The alarm is that 94% of out of school children are poor in that category, experiencing very high multidimensional poverty. So what that tells you from a policy perspective, the government should tackle child poverty and declare a state of emergency on that. Because it is worse to have young people out of school, children are so poor, which means you are a breeding ground for all kinds of criminality.
“So, you have to invest in education because poverty is linked to terrorism, poverty is linked to banditry poverty is linked to all the major causes of insecurity. So there is evidence here, that percent of the school-age people are not in school, Subjecting them to the assessment, you will find out that 94% of the people that are out of school are poor. So, it was the poverty that drove them out of school.
“There’s another one too, about the geographical location of this poverty, if you look at urban and rural divide, you will also find out that the urban people have lower poverty of 16%.wWhich means a much higher percentage of the poor people are living in the rural area.
“But I think on a practical level, the government has Universal Basic Education. In the best depiction, which is well-founded, the challenge is that you can only take down their money with a counterpart. So, I think the federal government can look at that mapper and see whether they can lower the counterpart instead of 50 – 50. They can make it 75% from the government and 25% from the states.”
On his part, Aliyu noted that the government came with economic measures that were not going to work.
Toget it right, the economic expert said, “The CBN must resist pressure from raising all these monetary tools because they are also increasing inflation. They have to review the interest back, because the loans you take 2020 has been reviewed upward.
He continued, “The central bank must reverse the hiking of monetary rates so that the people can have better opportunities to repay their loans and take new ones.
“The government must also ensure the borders remain open for all. The only thing that we need is for the government to regulate what we import and export. This is very important because if borders are open and businesses are allowed, probably to checkmate supply bottlenecks.
“This is because if there are supply bottlenecks, then definitely prices will continue to go high. If prices continue to go high, purchasing power will be eroded and many people will just pull back the clock. So, supply bottlenecks must be checked and there must be a proper supply of what we are going to take.”
