As the refusal of President Muhammadu Buhari to assent to the Electoral (Amendment) Bill 2018 forwarded to him four different times by the National Assembly this year, continues to generate heated debates in the polity. Consideration of the about to be presented N8.7trillion 2019 budget proposals may be the next round of the controversies. Taiye Odewale puts up a prognosis.
2019 budget may be presented this week
Going by feelers from the presidency on Friday last week after the special Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting presided over by President Muhammadu Buhari, notice of presentation of the approved N8.7trillion budget proposals for the 2019 fiscal year, to the joint session of the National Assembly (NASS) would be given today via separate letters to that effect to the leadership of both chambers of NASS and possibly takes place this week as well.
This development no doubt, will bring about shifting of attention from the ongoing heated debates and arguments by concerned Nigerians over refusal of assent by President Buhari to the fourth version of the Electoral (Amendment) bill 2018 transmitted to him on the 8th of last month.
New Act will create confusion
President Buhari had in his refusal of assent to the bill said amongst others in separate letters addressed to the Senate President, Bukola Saraki and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon Yakubu Dogara that provisions of the bill should be allowed to take effect after the 2019 general elections to avoid confusion in the entire process of the elections that are too close now.
His letters title ” Presidential Decision to Decline Assent to the Electoral (Amendment) Bill 2018″ dated 7th December, 2018 reads in part: “Pursuant to section 58(4) of the 1999 constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended), I hereby convey to the Senate, my decision on 8th December, 2018 to decline Presidential Assent to the fourth version of the Electoral (Amendment) Bill 2018 forwarded to me by the National Assembly on the 8th of November, 2018.
“My refusal of assent to the bill for now is principally because I am concerned that passing a new electoral bill this far into the electoral process for the 2019 general elections which commenced under the 2015 Electoral Act could create some uncertainties about the applicable legislation to govern the process.
“Any real or apparent change to the rules this close to the election may provide an opportunity for disruption and confusion in respect of which law governs the electoral process.
“This leads me to believe that it is in the best interest of the country and our democracy for the National Assembly to specifically state in the bill, that the electoral act will come into effect and be applicable to elections commencing after the 2019 general elections”.
Three rejections, three reasons
It would be recalled that before the last week refusal of assent to the bill, the President had in March this year rejected the first version of the bill transmitted to him for assent by the federal lawmakers majorly as a result of section 25(1) of the bill which seeks for reordering of sequence of the elections as against arrangement earlier made by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
The second version of the bill transmitted to him on the 27th of June, 2018, was out-rightly vetoed by the President by not touching it in anyway till 26th of July when its constitutional life line of 30 days expired while the third version of the bill transmitted to the President for assent on the 3rd of August, 2018 was rejected by him on the 2nd of September 2018 on alleged drafting errors made by the federal lawmakers as stated in a letter to that effect.
Budget 2019 and fresh headache
With issues on the Electoral (Amendment) bill out of the way now, the 2019 budget proposals will surely take the centre stage of national discourse from this week when the President is expected to officially notify the National Assembly of its presentation and even possibly make the presentation.
The N8.7trillion budget proposals to be made by President Muhammadu Buhari is N400bn lower than that of this year (N9.12trillion) and just N100bn higher than the original budget estimates of N8.6trillion presented to joint session of the National Assembly on the 7th of November , 2017 as original budget profile for 2018 before the federal lawmakers injected N578bn into it to cover the 1,403 projects they added to the capital component of the budget.
It will be recalled that the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Udoma Udo Udoma had last month announced that the federal government was considering a leaner 2019 budget of N8.6 trillion, which is leaner than the N9.1 trillion approved by lawmakers for 2018.
He had explained at a consultative forum on the medium term expenditure framework (MTEF) and fiscal strategy paper (FSP) 2019-2021, that the decision was due to reduced government revenue projection for the year.
Udoma also said government planned to cut down the level of borrowing from N1.6 trillion in 2018 to N1.5 trillion in 2019, while the deficit component would be reduced from N1.9 trillion in 2018 to N1.6 trillion.
According to him, in spite of the recent oil output drop to about 1.9 million barrels per day, government was optimistic that the 2.3 million barrels a day target was achievable with production now rising to about 2.15 million barrels a day and new oil productions being put into play.
Although a $50 per barrel oil price benchmark was proposed in the ERGP, the minister had expressed confidence that with a significant rise in the price above $80 per barrel currently, government has proposed a $60 per barrel oil price for the budget.
He further stated that N305 was proposed as exchange rate to the dollar, with government working to keep inflation down after slight increases in the last two months on the heels of 18 months consecutive decline.
Issues on the budget
The projected target gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the budget was put at 3.01 per cent, reduced from 4.5 per cent in the ERGP; 3.6 per cent in 2020 and 3.9 per cent in 2021.
He added that: “Growth is expected to increase from 0.8 per cent in 2017 to 2.1 per cent this year and 3.01 per cent in 2019 with the continued implementation of the ERGP in 2019 and improved outlook for oil prices.
Specifically on revenue, the Minister explained that based on the oil price and oil production assumptions, government expected to generate about N3.6 trillion from oil, up by about N500 billion from last year’s figure. About N6.9 trillion revenue is projected to be available to the budget in 2019.
With other projections showing government expects to collect less revenue from some independent sources, he said only about N624 billion is expected to be realised, against about N847 billion in the 2018 budget, among others.
No minimum wage in budget
However, the contentious N30, 000 minimum wage being demanded for by workers across the country, is not in any way mentioned by the Minister or the President in the proposed N8.7trillion 2019 budget estimates nor a bill to that effect forwarded to the National Assembly for consideration and approval several weeks after promises to that effect have been made by the executive.
Besides, the budget presentation coming almost six weeks after that of last year, signals problems ahead as regards its consideration and approval by NASS going by the six months duration spent on the 2018 budget proposals.
It would be recalled that the N9.12trillion 2018 budget estimates were passed by both chambers of the National Assembly on the 16th of May this year and assented to by President Buhari on the 14th of June this year.
If a similar scenario is to take place this year, a debacle may be in the offing, as the tenure of the current 8th National Assembly ends on the 9th of June 2019.
The worries are even compounded by the fact that the possibility of the federal lawmakers fast-tracking the consideration and approval of the about to be presented 2019 budget estimates is slim going by the fact that political activities for their reelection in form of campaigns have started in preparation for the February 16, Presidential and National Assembly elections.
Whichever or whatever way the looming debacle over the consideration and approval of the about to be presented N8.7trillion 2019 budget would be handled by both the Presidency and the National Assembly is certainly in the womb of time.
