BODE OLAGOKE, in this piece, analyses the principle of the zoning as one of the challenges the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has to confront ahead of the 2023 general elections.
Undoubtedly, year 2021 will witness more controversy as regards the zone that will produce President Muhammadu Buhari’s successor. This back and forth issue started in 2020 but the issue will continue to generate dust until the leadership of the party takes a firm stand.
Although zoning is never written in the constitution of any political party, the gladiators from North and South usually have what they call ‘gentleman agreement’ among themselves.
The incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari hails from Katsina state in North-west Nigeria, hence some politicians are of the opinion that Buhari’s successor shouldn’t again come from the North, most especially, the North-west. History has shown that Buhari’s zone has been the most beneficiary of the seat of power since Nigeria’s independence.
For the above reasons, some politicians in the ruling APC from the South have started the agitation that the APC should zone its presidential ticket to the South “in the interest of justice and fairness.”
Fashola’s outburst
This agitation publicly started with the former Lagos state governor and the incumbent Minister of Works and Housing Babatunde Fashola, who told newsmen in Abuja that APC must respect the zoning agreement.
Fashola said: “The truth is that what makes an agreement spectacular is the honour in which it is made, not whether it is written. If it was written, there would be no court cases of breach of contract because it’s a document that is written and signed that goes to court.
“The private agreement you make with your brother and sister should not be breached. It must be honoured.”
He acknowledged that zoning is not in the party’s constitution, insisting that the party leaders had an agreement on zoning when the party was being formed.
He likened political parties to clubs “where you write agreements just like a social club and we can decide that it is the youngest person who will be the chairman of the club or we can decide that it is the oldest person or the next female or the next male. That is the matter of agreement among people.”
Checks show that there is no categorical provision for presidential zoning in the APC Constitution. The nearest to zoning is implied in Article 20 which states: ‘Election and Appointments (iv) Criteria for Nomination (6); it states that: “All such rules, regulations and guidelines shall take into consideration and uphold the principle of federal character, gender balance, geo-political spread and rotation of office, to as much as possible, ensure balance within the constituency covered.”
Sani Yerima’s declaration to succeed Buhari
But indirectly responding to Fashola’s outburst, former governor of Zamfara state, Sani Yerima, who also hails from the North-west of Zamfara state has declared his presidential ambition to succeed Buhari
The former governor noted that back in 2006, he declared his interest to run after his second term ended as governor but stepped down for President Muhammadu Buhari.
Yerima also said that since then he has been in the Nigerian Senate for three terms, saying since Buhari is about completing his second term, he decided to try to run for president having voluntarily decided not to go to the upper legislative chamber again.
Osoba’s position on zoning
For the elder statesman and veteran journalist Aremo Olusegun Osoba, who was the chairman of APC constitution drafting committee when the party started has also revealed the pre-existing pact on power rotation between the North and the South.
The former governor said the implication of the rotational pact is that a presidential candidate on the platform of the APC from the South, comprising Southeast, Southwest and Southsouth , should succeed President Muhammadu Buhari.
The names for the ticket
Among the prominent politicians whose names are on the card include; the national leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who has not publicly declared interest but his supporters and political associates are already singing his praises, former governor of Rivers state and Minister of Transport, Rotimi Ameachi, who a source said he has told some people within the party of interest to run for the exalted seat in 2023.
Other names include; Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Minister Raji Babatunde Fashola, Senator Rochas Okorocha, Senator Orji Kalu and Governor Dave Umahi, who recently joined the APC.
South-east’s demand
Rising from a cross-party meeting of the South-east leaders in Igbere, the home country of the Chief Whip of the Nigerian Senate and former governor of Abia state, Dr. Orji Uzo Kalu, last week, the political leaders in South-east said the southwest and the south-south zones which made up the entire South had respectively produced Nigeria’s presidents in Chief Olusegun Obasanjo and Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, leaving them behind.
In a communique jointly signed by Kalu; the former deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim; Deputy Chief Whip of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Nkeiru Onyejeocha; the spokesman of the House of Representatives, Hon. Benjamin Kalu and the National Chairman of United Progressives Party, UPP, Chief Chekwas Okorie, at the end of the meeting, the leaders also called on Nigerians across all geopolitical zones and ethnic nationalities to support Nigeria’s president of Igbo extraction in 2023.
The dilemma
Political observers are of the opinion that the next general elections won’t be a tea party for the ruling APC. The observers’ conclusion is based on the fact that President Muhammadu Buhari who could only boast of 12 million votes even before any election won’t be on the ballot for the APC.
Again the body language of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is clearly showing that it might retain its presidential ticket in the North. If that happens, the thinking is that the majority of Northern voters (the region with the highest number) will rather vote for their kinsman irrespective of political party.
Another factor is the prevailing economic hardship and the insecurity ravaging the country which might, to some extent, demarket the APC and make it less attractive to Nigerian voters.
The fears of APC supporters
The Coalition of APC Support Groups (CASG) has recently called on President Muhammadu Buhari to be proactive and dynamic to raise the confidence of Nigerians.
The group said it is increasingly becoming difficult and making them look stupid promoting the current administration.
The spokesman of the group Hon Sam Atasia Oburu, in a post on his personal Facebook page, said the narrative on the streets was not good for the party.
Oburu, however, advised the President to change the security chiefs or change and reshuffle his cabinet.
He said: “It is becoming increasingly difficult and making us look stupid promoting this our PMB govt , without you Mr President doing something proactive and dynamic to raise the confidence of Nigerians. We are counting down to 2023 we should be able to beat our chest that we have a President with a listening ear.
My advice Mr. President, you should do one of these two as soon as possible: Change the security chiefs or change and reshuffle your cabinet, or do both.
“Let’s do something positive to reassure Nigerians that we mean well.
But despite the above factors among others, it will be difficult for the leadership of APC to ignore the issue of zoning “in the interest of fairness and justice.”
The question
A question the leadership of the APC has to urgently provide an answer to is whether a southerner will fly its ticket in 2023 or winning election (irrespective of where the candidate comes from) will be its priority?
