Since the September 19 Edo state governorship election victory of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the billions naira question in the minds of many Nigerians is whether the major opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) can return to Nigeria’s seat of power, the Aso Rock Villa in 2023, writes ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU in this analysis.
Before 2015 electoral loss
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) formed in 1998, produced President Olusegun Obasanjo, late Umaru Yar’ Adua and Goodluck Jonathan. However, PDP that was calling the shot in almost all states from 1999 to 2015, came under intense heat from the opposition (as it was then ) All Progressives Congress (APC) in the build-up to 2015 general elections. Every action of the administration under the watch of Goodluck Jonathan never found favour with most Nigerians. Things got to a head when some governors on the party’s platform, moved to the newly formed APC; the new kid on the block with a sharp mantra of change.
Ultimately, the PDP eventually fell out of favour with the Nigerian electorate who, with the passage of time, ended PDP’s 16-year rule. It lost the 2015 Presidential election and a good number of states to the APC. The defeat was indeed a major setback for the party.
From the defeat, the party was divided into two factions, one led by former governor of Borno state, Senator Ali Modu Sherrif and the other, by Ahmed Makarfi, former Kaduna state governor and senator of the Federal Republic. However, the highest court in the land, sometimes in July 2017, declared the Makarfi’s led caretaker committee the authentic leadership of the PDP, thus putting to an end the crisis that lasted for about two years. Like an army with many wars ahead, Ahmed Makarfi’s committee was saddled with the responsibility of conducting a make or mar elective convention in December 2017 to elect a new set of National Working Committee (NWC) members.
The elective convention, which remains the most competitive conventions in the history of the party, produced Prince Uche Secondus led National Working Committee (NWC). Three years in the saddle, Secondus’ led PDP NWC has reset the party to winning ways, and these among others suggest that the PDP can return to Aso Rock in 2023.
Reconciliation and the winsPolitical observers are of the view that the party bounced back after the truce by the peace and reconciliation committee, led by former governor of Bayelsa State, Seriake Dickson. The committee partly ensured the return of some of the party’s influential members, who, prior to the 2015 elections, defected to the APC. In this class were former vice president and later PDP 2019 presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President Abubakar Bukola Saraki, the former Speaker House of Representatives Hon Yakubu Dogara now back to APC, former governor of Kano state, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, governor of Sokoto state and former speaker of the lower house, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal and Benue state governor, Samuel Ortom among many others.
The return of all these political bigwigs is attributed to the genuine reconciliation and reward system put in place by the NWC under the leadership of Prince Secondus. Notably, the reformed peace and conflict mechanism structure which ensured the return of some influential politicians also halted the wave of defections and gave the PDP an edge over the ruling APC in most elections recently conducted.
Consequently, the PDP now controls 16 states after a resounding victory in Edo state while APC controls 19 States. The PDP-controlled states are Edo, Rivers, Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, Akwa Ibom State (South-South), Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia State (Sout East) Benue State (North Central), Oyo (South West), Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba States (North East), Zamfara and Sokoto state (North West), making it the only political party in Nigeria today, with spread across the six geo-political zones.
The case of Imo state has been as controversial as ever since the former governor, Hon Emeka Ihedioha who was declared winner was removed by the Supreme Court and installed Senator Hope Uzodinma as the governor of the state.
Many analysts are of the view that, if the PDP can consolidate on the successes recorded with its reformed peace and conflict resolution mechanism alongside its reward system, the party stands a chance to democratically take over power at the centre in 2023.
Synergy among party organsSimilarly, another factor, according to political pundits that suggest that the PDP can return to Aso Rock in 2023 is the synergy among the organs of the party. Unlike in past, when the NWC used to be at loggerheads with the members of the Board of Trustees (BoT), PDP Governors Forum and other organs of the party used to work at cross purposes. Today, political observers noticed that there is improved synergy among PDP governors, NASS caucuses, party leaders, various organs of the party, including the Board of Trustees, BoT, with the National Working Committee (NWC). This synergy has no doubt helped the party to gain more ground ahead of the 2023 elections.
Some of the analysts are also optimistic that, if this synergy can be sustained, PDP will displace APC in 2023.
PDP: Back to the people
The National Chairman of the PDP, Prince Uche Secondus who promised to rebuild the party to regain the lost grounds, once declared the gate to the party is open to all people irrespective of their religious beliefs and their class.
He once stated, “let me assure the state chapters and our state chairmen that from today, you will have full powers to operate to make sure that our party progresses in the right direction and I will empower you on behalf of the Exco. We will decentralize power from the centre so that we will be less busy here.
Secondus continued, “We will make sure that there is no more imposition. We will make sure that the era of impunity has come and gone and we want to warn our leaders and ourselves that with this take over today, let us not misuse the word, impunity. It has come and gone. The old order is gone. We will operate in the new order. There will be transparency in primaries.”
In line with his promise, all indications pointed to the direction that the PDP policy of decentralisation of decision making and equality of members has attracted more members to the party.
Some political pundits are of the view that the level playing ground for all members led to the cancellation of the imposition of candidates/manipulations in primaries which used to be the order of the day in past. A few pundits concluded that today’s PDP, its members decide who fly the party’s flag, primaries are free, fair, credible and acceptable to all. The NWC has decentralised the powers with state and zonal party leaders now playing a more active role, the PDP, like its motto, has now returned power to the people.
PDP will win 2023 – BoT Chairman
The Chairman of the Board of Trustees (BoT) of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Walid Jibrin, has posited that the party is set to take over in 2023 given free, fair and credible elections, like the recently concluded Edo State governorship election.
In a statement recently, he said “after our victory in Edo state, PDP presently controls 16 states, while APC controls 19. This is, therefore, a good sign that PDP is on its way to controlling over 90 per cent of the states and Nigeria in 2023 given free, fair and transparent election as conducted by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) in Edo State.”
The BoT Chairman added, “the doors are always opened to everyone who wants to join the party. The National Working Committee WC), the BoT and the PDP Governors’ Forum are determined to continue with their roles to move the party forward”.
PDP can, if…….A political analysts, Jide Ojo says the PDP stand a chance in 2023 because of the public disenchantment in APC.
Jide in a phone Chat with Blueprint said “there is a factor of public disenchantment in APC. They have come to realise that APC does not have any better agenda than what PDP offers.
On the party leadership he said, “the manners at which the Prince Uche led PDP NWC have been managing the affairs of the party, contributed to the successes of the party. The PDP overcame it’s internal crisis ahead of the 2019 general election. Since then, the party under Secondushas not had much headache.
He continued “am optimistic that if the organs of PDP, BoT, Governors Forum, NASS Caucasuses and others work together with the NWC, the party stand a chance in 2023. Any party that has solid leadership may actually find its way in 2023. Though there are a lot of bridges to cross, we have have Ondo, Anambara, Ekiti and Osun state governorship elections and any thing can still happen before the. But, I agree that, the party with better leadership will carry the day in 2023, even though it still early to make such prediction.
“For PDP to win 2023, it must ensure that it governors are performing better, than that of the APC. So performance of governors and leadership within the party will play a key role for PDP. So, PDP needs to put it’s house in order. They need to close ranks, resolve and continue to reconcile ahead of 2023. They need to be united and present a common front”.