The principle of rotational presidency between the North and the South may once again be tested as some political bigwigs in the North are gearing up for battle with their counterparts in the South, where the Presidency is expected to return in 2023. ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU writes on the permutation and political discourse which has continued to dominate the political circle and has pitched the two powerful regions.
The saying that the preparations for the next election commence immediately after the previous one may have informed the on-going debate on the 2023 presidential election less than one year into the life of the present administration.
The Supreme Court judgement delivered in favour of President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) had also put to rest all contending issues in the 2019 presidential election petition and probably set the stage for the next poll.
Surprisingly, the governing APC is not left out of the power play perceived in some quarters as a ploy to distract the government of the day from focusing on governance and providing the dividends of democracy to the people.
While the candidate of the lead opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), in the 2019 presidential election, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who is from the North, said to have saved his structures towards the 2023 race, some other party bigwigs from the North and the South are also reportedly consulting and setting up structures towards the next presidential election.
Expectations were that with the completion of the President Buhari’s second term in office, the South would have the opportunity of producing the president based on the principle of rotational presidency. However, indications are that with politicians from the northern region already strategising to be in the race the principle may be either set aside or jettisoned.
This development may have already pitched the North against South against each other with leaders of both regions agitating for their regional interest.
Zoning
Nigeria has had 15 heads of government and presidents since it became an independent nation in 1960. Notably, out of the 15 civilian and military leaders that ruled her since independence, 10, including the incumbent president, are from the North while five are from the South.
Interestingly, Nigeria has had so many conferences to correct perceived imbalances in the nation’s political system beginning from the 1994/1995 Constitutional Conference (CC) organised by late head of state, Sani Abacha, the National Political Reform Conference (NPRC) convoked by former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2005, and the most recent National Conference during the administration of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan in 2014.
All these conferences adopted the rotational presidency between the North and the South, though the 1994/1995, 2005 and 2014 conferences recommended that the principle of power rotation should be enshrined in the Constitution so that executive positions rotate at federal, state and local governments. However, it has not been included in the Constitution; hence rotational presidency remains a recommended principle.
Despite the fact that it was not made a constitutional thing, many Nigeria politicians have benefited from it since 1999 when Nigeria returned to democratic governance. It is an indisputable fact that the principle was part of factors that led to the emergence of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP as the party’s presidential candidate in 1999.
Having won the election he held sway from 1999 to 2003 and was re-elected for a second term which elapsed in 2007, when the party’s ticket was given to a northerner, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, who is from the North. He was subsequently elected president and held sway from 2007 to 2010 before his demise.
Also, former President Goodluck Jonathan, who was the vice-president and from the South, completed the tenure of the Late Yar’Adua and was elected for a fresh term in 2011, but lost his re-election bid partly as a result of the principle of rotational presidency. He was perceived to have breached the principle.
It is worth noting that the emergence of Gen. Buhari as candidate of the APC and his subsequent election was also a partial product of rotational presidency.
Obviously, zoning and rotational presidency has become part of the political consciousness and has been adopted in most elections across the country.
Why North again?
It goes without saying that the North has clearly positioned itself in an advantageous political stead with 19 out of the 36 states being in the northern region. And considered as the most populous region, according to the 2006 population census and with a politically active electorate, the move by the region to scuttle the principle has continued to attract attention and criticisms.
In an interview with Blueprint Weekend, the National President of Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF), Yerima Shettima, one of those championing that the North to retain power in 2023, said, “I am one of those clamouring for the North to retain power in 2023. With the way things are, with the level of insecurity in the North and also in the spirit of fairness and equity to all, you remember that former President Olusegun Obasanjo had eight years uninterrupted ruling before Late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua came on board.
“Unfortunately, Yar’Adua only ruled for a year before he took ill and the sickness later claimed his life. After his demise former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, who completed the two years of Yar’Adua’s administration, was elected president in 2011. Ordinarily, in the rotational presidency, Jonathan, a southerner, shouldn’t have contested, but he contested against all odds and ruled for another four years. In fact, he wanted to go for another term, but he was rejected and President Buhari came on board in 2015.
“If you put eight years of Obasanjo together with six years of Jonathan’s administration, it will give you almost 15 years in favour of the South. Now, even if President Muhammadu Buhari finishes his eight years without any hindrance, automatically the North would have spent about only nine years from 1999 to date.”
Continuing, he said: “So, it won’t be out of place or a bad idea with the challenge we having Nigerians should have known that the country has been fair to us. To an extent courtesy demand that we are allowed to retain power in 2023 to at least 2027 because the challenge to us is to critically look at the issue of insecurity in the northern part of the country.
“Also, to tackle the issue of unemployment in northern part of the country Yar’Adua administration favoured the Niger Delta with Amnesty and the present administration only favoured the South-west and some part of the South. There is nothing tangible that you can pinpoint that has been achieved in northern part of the country under this administration. So, the North should retain power in 2015 for security issues in the region to be properly tackled.”
On why he’s not optimistic that a president from the southern region can solve the problems of the North, he said, “We have seen it during the time former President Jonathan when the North was left to carry its cross, where some people even saw insecurity as a northern problem. And to that extent nobody should bother. And without the support of the president, many northern governors are limited in what they can do. And that was why our people rejected that government for change in 2015. Unfortunately, under President Buhari there is no capacity for him to do things right. We are not getting it right.”
Reacting to the claim that the North cannot survive without power, he said, “You will agree with me that we are not lazy, that was why some of us also advocated for restructuring. We are not desperate for power. If we were Obasanjo wouldn’t have emerged, the northerners stood by him even when his people were against him. To the extent that the North ensured that no northerner stood against him in 1999.
“If they are looking at from the military days, that is a different thing altogether. People put their lives on the line to get power, the North did that and anyone or region that failed to do that has itself to blame. So, it does not mean that we can’t survive without power.
“My advice to those who want the power to return to South is that they should not forget that the North is a determining factor of Nigeria politics as it is today in terms of number. I am not trying to be arrogant, but the results of 2015 and 2019 general elections have exposed a lot of things.
“We are not forcing ourselves on other regions, but democracy is about numbers and we have the numbers. So, any political party that fails to pick a northerner as its candidate is just wasting time because we have made up our minds that all our votes will be used properly.
“To us, four years, 2023 to 2027, are not small to solve all our challenges. After then, you can be assured that some of us will be at the forefront of the clamour for either Igbo presidency, which I think is the right thing to do. We urge the South to give us support so that the country will remain stable.”
Afenifere’s take
Interestingly, the South has 17 states, categorised into South-west, South-east and South-south, and it’s the hub of technocrats, business tycoons, sophisticated and highly enlightened citizens; however, pundits have observed that the region is not politically sophisticated and driven, and has placed itself in a disadvantaged position.
However, in a chat with our correspondent, the spokesman of Afenifere, the Yoruba Pan Cultural group, Yinka Odumakin, warned that there would be consequences if the North retained power in 2023.
He said, “It is clear that all the signs are all over the place, that the North wants to retain power in 2023 by those who don’t want to relinquish power. We have heard it from Miyetti Allah, we have heard it from Arewa Youth Consultative Forum. We have heard it from northern elders’ forum and the rest.
“So, clearly, the love for power has overtaken the souls of some people in the north, to the extent that they think that the north must hold on to power beyond 2023. This is so because that is the only thing they have.
“But I want to say this; the foundation of this country is shaking at the moment. And any attempt to give the impression that a section of the country has conquered the rest and they will hold on to power at all cost, there will be consequences no doubt.
“The last time they annulled June 12, 1993 election; this country was in crisis for five years. Also, many sections of this country are on the edge and any attempt for the North to hold on to power will certainly not be good for the country.”
Reminded that rotation or zone was not a constitutional matter, he said, “who was that politician in the North, in 2014/2015 who was not singing that it is our turn. So, now that they have it, they have realised that it is not a constitutional matter, but a party matter. Some of us might be born in the night, but we are not born into the night to some of this cheap blackmail.”
Continuing he said, “Northerners that are behind this should know that such kind of pregnancy does bring about good child. They should bury and forget the idea in the best interest of the country. They should allow power to return to the south.”
Ohanaeze begs
The president-general, Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide, Chief John Nnia Nwodo, who spoke through his special adviser on media and publicity, Chief Emeka Attamah, urged the North to be fair and concede the 2023 Presidency to the Igbo.
He said, “The fact of the matter remains that, unless we are not running a country that we want to be united, everybody knows that the Igbo have been highly marginalised in this country. Nobody doubts it. Even the perpetrator of the act knows that they have not been fair to the Igbo.
“Not sooner than the North-east got engulfed with insecurity problem, the North-east Development Commission was established to cater to the needs of the people there. But these are people who are ravaged with three years of war, no matter the circumstances that led to the war, the fact remains that the Igbo suffered the brunch of it and the devastation in terms of infrastructure. The President then promised Reconciliation, Reconstruction, and Rehabilitation (3Rs), but was that observed? No.”
Continuing, he said: “After that, the nearest person from Igbo extraction that came close to power was when Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe was the ceremonial President. The period of Maj.-Gen. Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi was short-lived. And the unfortunate thing was that what they accused him of is what most of them are doing now.
“Let’s come to 2023 Presidency, I want to believe that if we want an equitable, justifiable and Godly nation. The Igbo should be given opportunity in 2023. In 1999 when the country said Yoruba were unfairly treated in the case of MKO Abiola and June 12, 1993. All the leading political parties then zeroed in the presidential candidate to the southwest. So, this time around, Nigerians should integrate the Igbo into the country’s political system.
“The Igbo have paid their dues; they are in all part of the country contributing to the development of Nigeria. The Igbo are harmless, even the IPOB they branded terrorist group they are doing it simply because of the perceived and known marginalisation of the Igbo in the country.”
He further said, “If you give Igbo their dues all these will end in the country. There are credible Igbo sons and daughters and I don’t think there is a dearth of presidential material in the Igbo nation. The south westerners that are clamouring for it now don’t mean well for this country. The North has always been in political understanding with the South-east as far back as history can tell us. The new bed fellows they are having with Yoruba is just a matter of circumstance to take power from former President Jonathan.
“So, I believe the North in full realisation of the role the south easterners have played in the sustenance of the unity of this country will allow and support the Igbo to come to power in 2023. In all fairness, the North should see reason they should concede it to the South-east by 2023.”
Let focus on governance
Speaking on the development, a political analyst, Abubakar Muhammed, cautioned that it was too early to discuss the 2023 Presidency. He said any patriotic citizen should focus more how to deliver good governance in the next four years.
“It is unfortunate that our politicians are already plotting 2023 Presidential election in 2019. All concerned and patriotic citizens are supposed to focus more how to deliver on good governance. No matter our political affiliation, we all have a role to play in the development of Nigeria.
“The most unfortunate thing about this there 2023 game, is that it is not about integrity and competence, but it is about it is the turn of the South; no, the North must retain it; it is the turn of the Igbo, no, the Yoruba are next. This, in my opinion, should not be allowed to go on for too long, as it will affect governance. For now, let the focus be on good governance, not 2023.”
