About two years to the next general election, the race for the top job, has earnestly begun. President Muhammadu Buhari is constitutionally disqualified from re-contesting as the position has a two-term limit. There is a vacancy in Aso Villa by 2023 and the big question is who will occupy it?

Nigeria’s presidency is historically predictable, as it failed to spring up surprises over the years. A green horn has never occupied the number one position either through military or civilian rule. Nigeria’s four presidents since 1999 were either former governors or former head of states. Obasanjo (former Head of State), Yar’Adua (former governor), Jonathan (former governor), and Buhari, (former Head of state).

What could have been an exception was Goodluck Jonathan, but he had earlier occupied prominent positions as deputy governor, governor, vice president, and acting president before becoming the nation’s No 1.

2023 is not likely to spring new surprises, as Nigeria’s ruling class hegemony of governance may not be threatened. Nigeria’s next president will be a known face, likely coming from the ranks of a former or serving vice president, a former or serving governor, or possibly a former or serving federal legislator.

Nine factors by my reckoning will determine the next president.  These are the popularity factor, northern factor, the All Progressives Congress (APC) factor, Buhari’s incumbency factor, Oshiomhole chairmanship’s factor, governors’ factor, the religious factor, status quo factor, and force majeure factor.

On the popularity factor, the positive visibility and wide popularity of a presidential aspirant across ethnic, religious, and political lines would be key in determining electoral victory. This worked for late M.K.O. Abiola in 1993 and President Muhamadu Buhari in 2015.

As for the northern factor, the Northern Nigeria has always decided, directly or indirectly who becomes Nigeria’s president, and 2023 may not be an exception. It was the ‘North’ that decided the preferred southern candidate, even when the post was zoned to the South. At the advent of the fourth republic, when it was obvious that political power had to shift to South due to deep divisions caused by the June 12 crisis, Chief Obasanjo, who was unpopular in the Southwest, emerged president through northern support.

APC has an electoral edge over the PDP, and it should be safely assumed that, whoever picks up the APC’s presidential ticket will win the 2023 election. The way APC manages or mismanages its political strength will determine whether it will retain its position as ruling party or revert to opposition in 2023.

President Buhari’s personality will also influence Choice 2023. This is a variable dependent on the popularity or unpopularity of Buhari in the months preceding the 2023 general elections. If the public rating of Buhari nose dives, it may work against any presidential candidate presented by the APC. Internal democracy is not deepened in most political parties allowing rules to be compromised or altered to favour preferred candidates.

However, Adams Oshiomole has been projected as a stickler for the rules. If he survives till 2022/3 as national chairman, the proverbial hand of Jacob and voice of Esau may work behind the scenes to determine who wins the APC’s presidential ticket in 2023.

In Nigeria, governors are political tin gods, holding the aces. All the parties have national leaders, but the real leaders are the state governors. By and large, they control the party structures. Also, political prebendalism gives them enormous powers to practically dictate the shape and outcome of party primaries.

Religion plays a subtle, but critical role in Nigeria’s politics in recent times, thanks to distrust generated by Boko Haram religious fundamentalism, reported cases of religious persecutions, and allegations of perceived marginalisation.

The two leading faiths are Christian and Muslim. The beautiful political era of the past has been murdered by religious intolerance. A Muslim/Muslim ticket symbolised by Abiola/Kingibe’s Hope 93 swept the country like a hurricane with popular acclamation across religious lines.

Religion is now an issue in Nigeria’s politics. What are the expectations of the faith communities come 2023? Should the presidency rotate along geopolitical and faith lines, what will it portend for nation building?  How will this be managed by 2023?

The status quo factor is based on the premise that there wouldn’t be any iconoclastic change, the presidential race will be a straight one between politicians in APC and PDP, none of the fringe parties will be able to spring a surprise, and nothing will change apart from party affiliations.

Force majeure is a legal term for unavoidable, unpredictable, or unexpected event that cannot be controlled by anyone, sometimes described as an act of God. Force majeure has been decisive in changing permutations in Nigeria’s polity on several occasions. It was force majeure that led to the emergence of Goodluck Jonathan as Nigeria’s Acting President on February 10, 2010.

It is ungodly to speculate the ill-health or sudden death of any of the gladiators interested in the presidential seat or guess who could be the beneficiary of such unfortunate development. God knows tomorrow, yet death is a natural occurrence. Be this as it may, a force majeure is like a red card in football, and capable of changing the game, turning potential losers to winners.

Babalobi writes from University of Bath, UK.