APC, South-west, Osinbajo and Tinubu

Anyone who is fair, just and honest and who also deeply appreciates the role the South-eest region of our country played in the victory of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the national and regional elections in 2015 and again, in 2019, will agree without much debate that the APC needs to compensate the South-west members of the party with the presidency come 2023. Without the astute mobilization of journalists, human rights activists, the ordinary voters, traditional rulers and the Who is Who in that region, it is clear that the party would not have coasted home to victory, especially in 2015, against an then incumbent PDP president.

This feat was achieved under the leadership of one of the party’s national leaders, Bola Tinubu. The issue now is who in that region is suitable and, therefore, deserves the support of the party to emerge victorious in the party’s presidential primaries and subsequently, in the real presidential election? The minds of most politically minded persons and analysts will, no doubt, zero in on Prof. YemiOsinbajo, the Vice-President of the country and naturally, his god-father and one of the party’s godfathers and guardian angels,Alhaji Ahmed Bola Tinubu.

There is no denying the fact that whether with a covenant or not,Tinubu worked so hard for the party on both occasions with the understanding that he will in turn be supported to become president in 2023. Fairness would, therefore, demand that this is the man that merits a first look in when considering who will possibly carry the party’s flag in the forthcoming election. But fairness is not the only factor that counts in deciding who emerges a party’s candidate in any election anywhere in the world. Other factors such as suitability, acceptability by a broad range of the electorate in both the primaries and real elections, ability, intellect, character and many others are equally weighty, if not more so.

What will therefore appear as a dilemma facing the APC as to who between Osinbajo and Tinubu the party should choose is no dilemma at all. From this analysis it should be clear that the choice should, unmistakably, be Osinbajo.

Osinbajo has attributes of his own that are superior to Tinubu’s own on a one- on- one count and even more importantly, he does not carry much of the political and social baggage which Tinubu carries like an albatross around his neck. Osinbajo is brilliant, easy-going and so humble that his humility can be touched with a hand. He is so cerebral, and his knowledge so eclectic that when he is talking economics you will think he is an economist and not a professor of Law. Add to his advantage over Tinubu is the fact that Osinbajo is the current Vice-President who has worked very closely and loyally with President MuhammaduBuhari. In that position, all can see his qualities and contribution to the well- being of the administration, his party and country. Why risk Tinubu who has not been so similarly tested? A thousand qualifications cannot be trusted over one solid verifiable experience.

On the many occasions that the president has been away and the reins of government were transferred unto the shoulders of Osinbajo, he has held forth admirably well. From what we have seen and experienced, Osinbajo cannot become a disaster as president no matter what storms face him in his presidency. We recall with admiration when in 2016, very early in the life of his joint partnership with Buhari, the president was in London for medicare, Osinbajo negotiated successfully with the Niger Delta Avengers and other groups for the peace we are still enjoying till today. Osinbajo we have known and can attest to a fair measure of ability, but Tinubu we cannot say with any much confidence what he can do.

As is known of all godfathers in the world of politics, they are never known to do well in elections in which they stand as candidates. And the reasons are fairly obvious.The things godfathers do so ably to help others to win election, no one else is in that corner to do it for them to win once they throw in the hat into the ring by becoming candidates. 

People that godfathers have stopped before in helping others to win will now mobilise all their forces to stop that godfather if he chooses to enter into a political contest. It is to prove that the man is a mere paper tiger and astute manipulators of events and gullible people. He is not as formidable as he claims to be. In fact, there is a certain kind of perverse joy some derive in seeing a godfather humiliated, perhaps, as compensation for the pains of defeat he had inflicted on so many others before.

And Tinubu’s troubles will first start in his South West stronghold with the hardcore Afenifere group who have not quite forgiven him for upstaging them and emerging as the strongman and foremost politician of the region. They consider themselves morally, intellectually and politically superior to him and cannot bear seeing him become president over them. Then consider also all those he has hurt one way or another in his many political fights as one of the leaders of the party. Make him party candidate for president and he will have one hell of a fight on his hands nationally.

These leave the field wide open for VeepeeYemiOsinbajo to be nominated, supported and voted for as the APC candidate for president and a vigorous campaign by the party for him to emerge as president of Nigeria come 2023. Osinbajo will not only make a good candidate for the party because he is not controversial and does not have baggage, he will also be a very, very good president for Nigeria because of what he can offer the country with his endowments and experience.

His candidacy is most likely to elicit a pan-Nigerian, pan-party acceptability because of his person and the enormous good qualities that he possesses. It is remarkable that in a public career spanning over 20 years now Osinbajo has not ‘cultivated’ virulent critics or enemies that will seriously be opposed to his becoming president of Nigeria. This Osinbajo is the type of man that a good party should have as candidate and a good people who desire progress should have as a leader.

Mallam Nataro is an APC governorship aspirant for Kebbi state in 2023.