Atiku’s costly political mistakes

The just concluded presidential election made it three times that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar had contested for the presidency of Nigeria, albeit unsuccessfully. I do not want to add the other three times where his presidential ambition was stopped at the primary election level. He had the opportunity to seek the mandate of all Nigerians to be our president in 2007 on the platform of the Action Congress (AC), 2019 on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and most recently in the just concluded presidential election on the platform of the same PDP.

Even as a sitting vice-president in 2007, his defeat at the polls was the worst that he had ever suffered in a presidential election. He garnered about two million votes and came a distant third position behind then General Muhammadu Buhari and late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua who won the presidential contest.

Atiku’s best performance so far in a presidential contest was in 2019 where he garnered about 12 million votes. God in heaven can attest that Atiku actually won the 2019 presidential election but was robbed by the incumbent President Buhari. That Atiku put up a sterling performance in 2019 was primarily because Peter Obi was part of the ticket. That Atiku won the whole of the South-east, South-south and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 2019 was because Ndigbo massively voted for the ticket because of Peter Obi.

The 2023 presidential election has shown that Atiku is truly overrated in terms of political strategic thinking. If Atiku was a political strategist that most Nigerians erroneously thought that he was, he should have retained or sustained the Atiku/Peter Obi ticket for the 2023 presidential election knowing full well that Buhari would not be on the ballot.

If Atiku had made a solid commitment to Peter Obi to retain him as his running mate, a year to the primary election of the PDP, I do not think that Peter Obi would have gone ahead to purchase the presidential form or dumped the PDP for the Labour Party, LP. If Atiku had confided in Peter Obi that he would retain him as his running mate for the 2023 presidential election, the latter would have joined forces with him to get the ticket of the party instead of purchasing his own presidential form.

Perhaps, Atiku underrated the contributions of Peter Obi in the 2019 election and that was why he was lukewarm or completely averse to picking him as his running mate for the just concluded 2023 presidential election. Atiku in a press conference in the aftermath of the 2023 presidential election, had admitted that Peter Obi literally ate up the votes that should have been reserved for the PDP, yet he underrated Peter Obi and allowed him to quit the PDP. Atiku, who scored a little above two million votes in 2007, didn’t realise that Peter Obi contributed almost 10 million votes for him in the 2019 presidential election?

Secondly, when Atiku opposed and worked against President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 in favour of Buhari, what was he thinking knowing full well that Buhari is a fellow northerner? If Atiku still nursed the ambition of becoming the president of Nigeria in 2015, didn’t he realise that Buhari was likely to spend eight years in office? Between Jonathan who had only one term of four years in 2015 and Buhari who had a constitutionally-guaranteed two terms of eight years, who would have made Atiku’s presidential ambition more realisable?

Atiku forfeited his presidential ambition in 2015 when he supported Buhari against Jonathan knowing full well that age was not on his side. If Atiku had supported Jonathan to win the 2015 presidential election, who knows whether Atiku could have become president since 2019 on the platform of the PDP.

Third, in my previous article, I had pleaded with Atiku and the national chairman of the PDP, Iyorchia Ayu, to accommodate the grievances of the G-5 governors. Unfortunately, my advice was not heeded and Atiku went into the presidential election with the over-confidence that the North would vote for him as one of their own.

I had advised Ayu to step down so that the G-5 could produce the national chairman of the party but they didn’t listen. Granted, the G-5 failed abysmally in their states and some of them even lost their senatorial ambition during the election which exposed their shallow impacts to whoever they supported against Atiku.

However, if PDP had gone into the election as a united party, the result could have been different. That Atiku called the bluff of Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso and the G-5 contributed to his loss. By 2027, Atiku would be 80 years old. I do not expect to see him running for the presidency again. If he could not attain the position in his younger years, how would he convince Nigerians in 2027? What new message will he bring? His presidential quest will no longer excite many Nigerians in the future because he has become a recurring decimal in our political hemisphere.

Peter Obi can no longer be a running mate to any presidential candidate judging by his powerful performance in the presidential contest, who then can Atiku choose from southern Nigeria as running mate that can displace Peter Obi for southern votes? Can Atiku win the 2027 presidential election under the leadership of Bola Tinubu as president of Nigeria if the election tribunals eventually uphold the election of the latter as president?

From all indications, Atiku seems not destined for the presidency. Some of us from the South stuck out our necks and swam against the tide to support him for the 2023 presidential contest with the hope that northerners would support him. Peter Obi is the most credible alternative for Nigerians going forward and I foresee many politicians decamping to the Labour Party after the general elections. The PDP may find it very hard or difficult to rise again unless divine providence intervenes.

Maduako writes from Owerri, Imo state via [email protected]