Nigeria like most countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic has taken to social distancing as a counter measure to the pandemic. Social distancing however is counter productive to agriculture, trade and commerce which form the bedrock of the grassroots economy in Nigeria. A collapse of the grassroots economy in Nigeria could portend conflicts and security challenges that could lead to the very deaths that Nigeria is trying to avoid through the current counter-measures.
At the state level, using Adamawa state as an example, the state is grappling with insecurity such as insurgency (Northern Zone), kidnapping, banditry and the residual effects of previous ethno-regional communal clashes (Southern Zone). The level of insecurity has already created a situation in which people are afraid to go to their farms. This situation has also been compounded by the lockdown on public health grounds. All this could not have come at a worst time since this is the beginning of the wet/rainy season when farmers ought to have commenced land preparation for cultivation. The strategic effect might therefore be hunger and extreme poverty in the near future with their consequent negative effect on security. This scenario applies to many states not just Adamawa. It therefore seems that we are caught up in a vicious circle; this however does not have to be the case depending on how the situation is managed.My view is that Adamawa must secure its health food and physical security needs and treat them as existential needs. It could manage the situation by avoiding total lockdown (unless it is necessary) through the categorization of its localities according to the presence of the disease and its potential of being there. It must prioritise the socio-economic needs of the people and the responses that would be required according to the presence of the disease. It must therefore balance the COVID-19 pandemic counter-measures (especially social distancing) against the socio- economic needs of the people in order to ameliorate the situation and for strategic reasons. Consequently, I propose the following:
Global oil prices are currently low. Consequently, Nigeria being an oil dependent country might not be able to generate enough revenue to absorb the socio-economic shock caused by COVID-19. States must therefore reprioritize their needs and use their meagre resources wisely. This might warrant reviews of their budget and the need for virement accordingly.It is possible that the Federal Government might consider an economic stimulus (when they get the resources through borrowing or some other arrangement). States should consider directing the stimulus to health, food and physical security for now. Other sectors such as education could come next once the situation is stabilized.
States must look inwards and generate revenue. Adamawa’s comparative advantage in this regards is grain production and livestock. The state must target feeding Nigeria by producing surplus the needs of its people. Farmers should be identified, organized and supported at ward level state wide. They should be given targets. This would boost the grassroots economy and avoid capital flight unlike spending meagre resources on/in areas where the raw material and expertise have to be imported thus leading to capital flight.Government at all tiers should be off-takers of a reasonable percentage of the products/produce. The products/produce should then be directed to schools, hospital and feeding programmes. This would enable the state absorb the first shock of the post pandemic period which would be hunger and extreme poverty with their natural progression of insecurity.
These are my humble opinions on how to manage the current negative socio-economic impact of COVID-19 at the state and local government levels. These ideas could be greatly improved upon and I hope that they would be of value as a foundation.
Senator Nyako writes from Abuja
