Kano arguably the most populous state in Nigeria, is one of the states in Northern Nigeria where people take the exercise of their franchise-voting in every election- as their civic responsibility very seriously.
In this analysis, ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU observes that election fever peculiar to the state has heightened, especially as the major gladiators: incumbent governor, Abdullahi Umaru Ganduje of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and two former governors; Dr.
Rabiu Kwankwaso and Ibrahim Shekarau of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) battle to win the electorate over to their respective camps.
The beginning before the end Less than eight months to the 2019 general election, tension has begun to build up in Kano state, which is reputed for its own unique style of politics that is rooted in the people.
Vivacious in all electoral sense, Kano state is no doubt one of the states to watch out in the 2019 general elections.
The two times former governor of Kano state, who is the Senator representing Kano central, Dr.
Rabiu Kwankwaso on the 24th of July, 2018 was among those Senators whose names were announced to have defected from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
In particular reasons for his defection were not stated but it is obviously that it may not far from the feud between him and the incumbent Governor of Kano state, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, his successor.
Prior to the current faceoff, both men worked together politically for over two decades, precisely when Kwankwaso was governor of Kano state between 1999 and 2003.
Ganduje was his deputy.
He was loyal, trusted perhaps like a fox by Kwankwaso who saw his loyalty and rewarded him with a guided ticket to the gubernatorial seat.
That was when the going was good.
But when the party went sour, the governor openly denied that Ganduje did not in any way affect his nomination and eventual emergence as the APC governorship candidate.
He insisted that contrary to what is on public domain that he was sponsored by kwankwaso, the former governor played no role in his stepping into his shoes.
He explained, “That the former governor did not pick me on the street.
I joined politics before he did.
In fact, we contested together in 1999.
The election was rigged but we were reconciled.
“We insisted that the election must be redone, but others said even if it was redone and I won, he too might disagree.
So it was an agreement that he should be the governor while I would be the deputy.
It’s not something I begged for, and I told him so.
That was how he became the governor and I became his deputy”.
That though is debatable.
Recall that when Kwankwaso’s second term was truncated as governor of the state in the 2003 general elections and he was appointed Minister of Defence by the then president, Olusegun Obasanjo, he took Ganduje along as his special adviser political matters and to cap it all, when he got elected as governor of Kano state in 2011, Ganduje became his deputy again and above all, when leaving office in 2015, he ensured that Ganduje succeeded him as governor.
In recent time, the relationship between the duo has become like the relationship between the cat and the mice.
It has gone sour to the extent that the former governor of the most populous state, who commands intimidating followership, Kwankwaso, was prevented from entering Kano on alleged security grounds.
This denial almost resulted to a serious confrontation between the Kwankwasiyya group (Supporters of Kwankwaso) and Gandujiyya group (supporters of Ganduje).
Interestingly, in an attempt to explained how their relationship got this bad, the incumbent, Ganduje noted that “During the 2015 primaries of the APC, some Kano delegates wanted to vote for Muhammadu Buhari but he (Ganduje) told them not to abandon Kwankwaso who is their son.
I was Senator Kwankwaso’s deputy for 8 years from 1999-2003 and from 2011- 2015 but we never had misunderstanding.
He was our leader and we all obeyed him.
But immediately I became governor in 2015, which made me also the leader of APC in Kano, he refused to accept me as his boss”, he said.
Surprisingly, Kwankwaso never provide an explanation to the feud between him and his old friend.
However, many analysts have pointed out that the root cause of the matter was that Ganduje had forcefully taken full control of his state, while Kwankwaso deservedly wanted some control of the state to himself in other to sustain grassroots followership and thus have reasonable base to achieve his presidential dream.
Kwankwaso’s defection, his chances Significantly, the former governor, who is also representing Kano Central in the Senate chamber, Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso was obviously out of the party even before his defection was announced by Senate President, Dr.
Bukola Saraki on the floor of the Senate.
He may have been angered by certain developments shortly before the ward, local, and state congresses.
Of course, considering the importance of the exercise especially with regard to who controls the respective executives, it was important that the Senator should have a foot hold and any attempt to deny him that means direct confrontation.
Sure Kwankwaso could not stomach that and no one should encourage him to accept what eventual would hurt his political ambition.
It could be recalled that, Kwankwaso lost out completely in the February local government election in Kano.
Also, in the All Progressives Congress (APC) ward and state congresses the former governor lost out, as the incumbent Ganduje seems to have taken charge of the entire structure of the party.
Considering all these factors, pundits noted that the leader of the Kwankwasiyyah movement probably have no option other than to defects.
Because it seems if he remains in the party with the ongoing between him and Ganduje is chances of getting the party’s ticket is slim.
And his chances of pursing is presidential ambition is also slimmer.
Though, analysts have observed thathe stand a better chance of getting the party’s Senatorial tickets, but is presidential dream is under treath as his fellow Kano man and former governor, Ibrahim Shakarau is also eyeing that position.
But Kwankwaso Spokesperson, Binta Spikin, boasted that “If you look across Nigeria today, not Kano alone, there’s nowhere in Nigeria that you don’t have the presence of Kwankwasiyya (supporters of Mr Kwankwaso).
Kano is his home base and he is well grounded in Kano Even without the government, he had a 60 percent of the voters, so what do you think will happen now that he has joined forces with people like Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau? Even if the government puts whatever in place, there is no way President Buhari will win in Kano, there’s no way.
He stands a very good chance to win Buhari.
We are covered.
Ganduje against all odds Governor Ganduje will obviously contest against the odds like Shekarau and Kwankwaso.
Ordinarily, the defection and reunion of the two former governors should be a threat to the incumbent who has declared his intention to seek for second term.
But, the incumbent seems not bother about them.
Ganduje said “we are not scared by their exit.
Their defection doesn’t constitute any havoc to our great party, the APC, at all levels.
People should keep eyes (open) to what will happen during election.
I want you to go and study the situation on ground in Kano, his (Kwankwaso) defection does not change the political mood in the state.
Nobody cares to be disturbed by their action.
Interestingly, Ganduje seems so confident and not disturbed about the current political situation in the state.
Pundits have attributed his confident to his achievement in areas like education, healthcare delivery and infrastructural development, in most of these areas the incumbent has done so well to the admiration of his people.
Analysts also pointed out that, though it will close contest in Kano between Ganduje and anyone that the two former governors will support for the PDP flag.
But all things been equal, the incumbent is likely going to coast home to victory, considering his landmark achievement and with the support of President Muhammadu Buhari.
Kwankwaso mocks Ganduje Kwankwaso has mocked the reaction of his successor, Governor Abdullahi Ganduje to his defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Speaking on Tuesday through Comrade Aminu Abdulsalam, his Senior Legislative Aide, SLA, Kwankwaso said Ganduje’s labeling of his defection as inconsequential was an attempt to “impress” President Muhammadu Buhari.
Ganduje had, in a statement signed by Abba Anwar, his Chief Press Secretary, dismissed Kwankwaso’s exit, saying it would pose no problem for President Buhari or the ruling APC.
”Their defection will not constitute any problem to our great party, the APC, at all levels.
People should keep their eyes (open) to what will happen during election.
“Our dear President has been doing the needful in terms of developing the nation, coupled with his efforts in efficient service delivery.
I want you to go and study the situation on ground in Kano, his (Kwankwaso ‘s) defection does not change the political mood in the state.
Nobody cares to be disturbed by their action”.
But Abdulsalam, who was Kwankwaso’s Chief of Staff, declared that the governor would swallow his words after the 2019 general elections.
“Only a political neophyte, who has no understating, could say that Kwankwaso’s exit from the APC would not mean anything.
“Going by experience and whoever is a student of history, very recent history for that matter, knows what happened in the PDP; when those in power at that time did not listen to the voices of wisdom.
“When Kwankwaso and co decided to leave PDP, a group of five governors and lawmakers including the House of Reps Speaker (Sokoto Governor Aminu Tambuwal), the likes of Ganduje were dismissing them.
They said their action would amount to nothing.
“We will definitely see… Kwankwaso, a former twoterm governor, a prominent personality, the most popular Governor in Nigeria while in office, now a member of the Senate, a former Defence Minister, a former Deputy Speaker, and you are saying he is not significant.
“I don’t know the parameters, the statistics they are using.
I think it sounds more of sycophancy and trying to impress the presidency to convince them that there is no problem.
“But the presidency knew there is a problem and that was why they were making very frantic and desperate efforts to stop them at the last hour.
“Kwankwaso left APC with a minimum of 6 members of the Kano House of Assembly, with about 10 members of the National Assembly.
We decided to leave and we have very good reasons for that.
“You said he’s not on the ground, who’s on the ground.
Time will tell, let’s wait and see.
This is Kano, elections are approaching.
We will definitely see who is in charge.” President Buhari’s and APC chances The political history of President Muhammadu Buhari in this democratic dispensation incomplete without Kano, is probably a place where he is most loved.
According to record, Buhari overwhelmed his opponent in Kano during the last 4 Presidential election.
In 2003 Buhari’s party All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) scored 1,628,085 as against an incumbent Olusegun Obasanjo’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 492,755, in the 2007 general election late President Umar Musa Yar’adua and PDP scored 440,666 while Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) got 1,624,543.
In 2011, Buhari’s CPC scored the total votes of 1,624,543 votes, Shekarau’s party, ANPP also scored 526,310 votes, President Jonathan scored 440,665.
In last 2015 Presidential election Buhari’s party APC scored 1,903,999 against the closest rival PDP’s 215,779 votes.
This is a clear indication that Buhari his fanatically love in Kano state.
Obviously, the defection of Kwankwaso and his reunion with Shekarau will to a large extent not affect the chances of President Muhammad Buhari.
Analysts noted that, from the voting partner of Kano state, it seems the electorate have made up their mind that when it comes to Presidential election as far Buhari is in the race their vote is for Buhari not for party, and in gubernatorial election and others they most likely going to be tilting towards a party.
So in Kano state, with President Muahammadu Buhari is the flag bearer of the APC it will be an easy ride for the party and the defection of Kwankwaso and others will not in any way affect the chances of the party.
Shekarau and PDP’s chances Though the former governor, Ibrahim Shakarau has not declared his intention to contest, but from his body language, analysts have observed that he is likely going to seek for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential ticket.
Pundits are unanimous that recent remarriage between these two kano political gladiators-incidentally his successor, Kwankwaso under the platform of the PDP, there is every tendency that the party will score more votes than it has scored in the past elections.
Though those might not upturn President Buhari’s and APC’s votes, but it will largely affect the general outcome of the 2019
