“Conditional precedent” is a term associated with legal profession. Just like in other professions, the term has its legal connotation and it is taken to mean that the same condition applies to similar case. This is because what happens to Mr. A is similar to what happens to Mr. B. This is easily deducible from the similarities between their cases.
In politics, however, no such concept has ever been established by scholars. In fact, political condition is the greatest task political scientists have not been able to define with absolute certainty. To them, politics is the affairs of men whose characters are not predictable even when he eats from the same table with you. This reason many people have agreed with.
No doubt in the saying that politics and law have no basic content except the regulations of structures and system of government in which politics is to be played and these frameworks are stipulations of law. Aside that, thinking of interwoven nature of politics and law is to talk of a man who wears a Naval Shirt on police trouser. You cannot tell of the forces he belongs.
Recently in an election conducted by INEC in Ekiti state which returned J.K Fayemi the APC candidate as the governor-elect, Kogi state governor Yahaya Bello has taken it be a conditional precedent which must be ruled in his favour. This has been the height of national debates and particularly about the fate of Kogites.
In fact, during the grand finale campaign of the APC in Ekiti state, the attendance of Bello was rumoured mocked by many APC stakeholders in the country. Bello’s participation in the rally was seen as a premise of the party’s failure in the state. This is because he adjourned to be in lack of political relevance to campaign before any well-meaning electorate in the nation. No wonder many have a prejudicial judgement of APC’s failure in the state if the candidacy of Yahaya Bello is flagged.
In essence it is simply viewed as an absolute risk to flag Bello who never enjoyed the test of political popularity before the angry Kogites in the state. His candidacy therefore is seen a failed mission of APC.
With the circumstances which brought Bello to power, alongside his unprecedented failure, it is a potential failure for the APC to flag him in Kogi come 2019. Hence the well-meaning Kogites who desire to remain in the party have to consider better alternative to follow. The choice many are already taking.
While the recent Ekiti guber poll results might have been given to Fayemi amidst height of allegations of federal government intervention, the party is aware of the most challenges faced. It is in the midst of this that Governor Yahaya Bello whom many have seen as the lowest performing state governor in the country is proclaiming his victory easier than that of Fayemi. His thought is premised upon his loyalty to Buhari.
In his celebration of Fayemi’s victory, it was reportedly said that Bello pointed at the “centre” in assurance of his victory. What could give him such proud assurance is a question many Kogites have kept in their minds un-answered.
As a governor who has nothing to show of his inherited office for four years; no substance at the base of his administration either in infrastructures or in development not to mention the inability to pay workers’ salaries. What then could give him such courage to provoke the angered Kogites?
If the God of Kogites is alive, then 2019 guber election would be like a permanent pregnancy which would cause a woman anxiety. It is the hope and prayers of Kogites that that day comes well in health and safety.