House of Reps beyond the 2019 polls

The presidential and National Assembly elections have come and gone, though with outcomes that have created mixed feelings among Nigerians. JOSHUA EGBODO X-rays the likely nature of the 9th House of Representatives.

Current House subsists until presidential proclamation

Baring any last minute adjustment to its resumption plans, the 8th House of Representatives would be back in session, precisely on Tuesday March 12, 2019, apparently for the last lap of its plenary. The House, and by extension, the current National Assembly subsists until a presidential proclamation dissolving same and fixing a new date for the inauguration of the 9th assembly of the federal parliament.

This will only happen after the president may have taken his oath of office on May 29, having been returned elected for a second term in the February 23 polls. The current House is expected to be dissolved in early June, about which time it was inaugurated in 2015.

Returning, and non returning members

Over the years, Nigeria’s House of Representatives, has been faced with the recurring decimal of high turnover, or exit rate of members. Surveys in the past revealed that Nigeria ranked the lowest with retention rate of lawmakers, especially at the federal legislature level in the world.

Nigeria also has the highest turnover (exit) rate of federal legislators among six African democracies surveyed. The survey report was contained in a past presentation; “Elections and retention rates in the National Assembly” by Director General of the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILS), Dr Ladi Hamalai.

According to the global survey, United States ranked top with 84 per cent legislators’ retention rate from eight elections. Australia ranked second with 80 percent from six elections. Others were Germany (78.7 percent/four elections), United Kingdom (75.7 percent/four elections), Belgium (69.5 percent/four elections), Italy (64.5 percent/four elections), The Netherlands (63.7/five elections).

France (57.7 percent/three elections), Spain (56 percent/four elections), Portugal (54.8 percent/five elections), Canada (53.1 percent/five elections).

Nigeria, the lowest ranked country on the survey posted a dismal 29.5 percent from three elections. In a separate survey of six African parliaments in 2009, South Africa posted the lowest turnover (exit) rate of legislators with 47 percent. Others in the ascending order are: Uganda (50.5 percent), Benin (51 percent), Ghana (56 percent), Kenya (64 percent). Again, Nigeria topped the list of highest legislator turnover rate with (70 percent).

In the general elections held from 2003-2007, of the 360 seats in the Nigerian House of Representatives, 108 members were re-elected (30 percent retention rate). 2007-2011, 110 members were re-elected (30.6 percent retention rate), 2011-2015, 103 members were re-elected (28.7 percent).

Hamalai noted that the politics of zoning and power sharing among various parts of senatorial districts and federal constituencies may have greatly been responsible for the high exit rate at the National Assembly. “However, in practice, existing legislators can be re-nominated by the party irrespective of zoning considerations, depending on the interest of the political party leadership, governors, godfathers and political clout of the individual legislator. The party leadership can also use the zoning principle as an excuse to reject an incumbent,” she said.

Effects of the high exit rate, according to analysts include, but not limited to slowing down of legislative process, as they argue that the new comers will have to spend long period learning on the job, waste of resources to get such members through the rudiments lawmaking, and so on.

A better outlook in 2019?

It, however, appeared that there have been a slight reversal of the trend after the 2019 elections. Statistics available so far from the outcome of the elections have shown that at least, not less than 209 members may be returning back to the House this time. Though the exit of about 150 lawmakers was still huge, pundits say this may be the beginning of a departure from the past, especially with hopes that this is sustained over time.

Leadership tussle for ninth assembly

As usual with the expectation of a new assembly, resumption of the House next Tuesday would not be with the business a of lawmaking as the norm. For those who already know their fate as being on the exit lounge, it is time to consolidate and create relationships that can keep them still relevant. This may even include working for a likely member-elect with the potentials to emerge as speaker, or deputy. This would be with the expectation to get appointments.

And for members-elect, it is time for horse trading to get members’ loyalty by those with intent to emerge presiding officers, and members shopping for a leader they can trust.

Party zoning losing relevance

The usual practice in the House had been to wait for the political party with majority of members to roll out its zoning formula for members to follow. But beginning from the seventh assembly of the House, when Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, now Governor of Sokoto state was elected speaker by his colleagues, in outright defiance to his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP’s) zoning arrangement, it has assumed a sustained trend in the House.

It was replication of a similar scenario in 2015, when incumbent speaker, Yakubu Dogara defied his then All Progressives Congress (APC’s) directive that he concede the position to its favoured candidate, Femi Gbajabiamila, who Dogara subsequently defeated in a very keen contest.

Followers of events in the House have therefore concluded that it is most likely that party zoning may not be heeded to. They recalled that most of those emerging against the wishes of their political parties were doing so on the shoulders of opposition elements, who are usually opposed to seeing a puppet speaker in the hands of his or her political party.

The frontline contenders

From all indications, it is clear that incumbent speaker Dogara would be taking another shot at the position. Questions are though being asked that he is now on the opposition divide, the PDP, but answers have readily been provided that the constitution does not say a presiding officer of any of the parliamentary houses must come from the ruling party with majority of members.

Gbajabiamila, who narrowly lost to Doagara at the inauguration of the House in June 2015, has been highly tipped as one with an eye on the post. As a “loyal” party member, the only obstacle may be if the APC zoned the position out of the South West, which unlikely, especially with the Vice President from the zone.

Also, Muhammad Tahir Monguno (Borno), has been tipped as one of the frontline contenders for speakership of the Ninth House, and this is not his first attempt. The lawmaker, representing Marte/Monguno/Nganzai federal constituency of Borno State has been in the House since 2007.

During the House leadership tussle in 2015, Monguno, a former Attorney General and Commissioner of Justice in Borno state, almost became deputy speaker as he ran together with Femi Gbajabiamila for the position. He was defeated by Lasun due to the fact that Dogara, who is also from the Northeast, had already emerged as speaker. Therefore, there was no way both the speaker and the deputy speaker could come from the same region.

But this time around, it was gathered that Monguno is battle-ready to go for the speaker’s seat once more, but he is said to be waiting patiently for the decision of the APC on zoning of the National Assembly’s leadership positions.

Others who may try out their popularity as the days draw closer include spokesman of the House, Abdulrazak Namdas (Adamawa), Bukar Lawal Goni (Yobe), Babangida Ibrahim (Katsina), deputy leader Idris Wase (Plateau), and Mohammed Umar Bago (Niger). Also named to possibly be in the race were Kingsley Chinda (Rivers), Chris Azubogu (Anambra), and Victor Nwokolo (Delta).

The above list may not be exhaustive, but only the coming days would confirm the men, who really want the job.

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