Although election fever has been in the air since the beginning of the year, with the parties conducting their primaries, the campaigns for the 2023 general elections will officially flag off on September 28, 2022, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) schedule of activities. Thenceforth, the public space unchained, would be inundated with partisan messages of all sorts. No doubt, there would be instances of brilliant political communication by experts designed to woo undecided voters.
Naturally, the more serious contenders in the leading parties would have engaged communication and marketing experts to help sell their candidacy to the electorate, which by the day is becoming more sophisticated. The people are beginning to ask questions and they clearly want the various candidates to address issues that affect them on a daily basis – security, economy, etc.
In Kaduna state, the arena is set for the usual two-horse race between the candidates of the two foremost parties, Distinguished Senator Uba Sani of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Rt Honourable Isa Ashiru Kudan of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Hon Jonathan Asake of the Labour Party, who has spiced up the contest with a strong showing in his native Southern Kaduna Senatorial district.
Some months back Yakubu Lere, Isa Ashiru Kudan’s spokesman and friend, had in a leaked audio, described the Southern Kaduna votes as inconsequential.
As in the other states of the federation, the campaign searchlight in 2023 will largely not focus on the political parties, but more on the quality of the candidates. The people have come to the conclusion that political parties in our clime are not really differentiated by any ideologies, which explains why it’s easy for politicians to decamp from one party to another. It doesn’t matter how many there are, or what name they are called, the parties are basically the same, such that a desperate office seeker like Isa Ashiru Kudan can go to bed in the night as a staunch member of the APC, and wake up in the morning proudly wearing the PDP emblem. Never mind that he scathingly condemned the PDP while in APC, as a party of evil people. Sadly, we have come to accept this abberant political behaviour as the norm.
We digressed, because we needed to eloquently make the point, that campaign issues ahead of the 2023 national polls wouldn’t just be about political parties. In Kaduna state, PDP woefully failed in the 16 years it governed the state, while the APC, in under eight years, is adjudged to have creditably performed; though there are questions about the performance of the party at the national level.
Fortunately for everyone, it is going to be about the quality of individual candidates to a large extent, their record of performance in previous assignments, and their parties, because the APC, despite question marks, is still hugely popular in the North, while the PDP crisis has worsened whatever chance it has, because like a leopard, it hasn’t changed its spots. To worsen matters, President Muhammadu Buhari iis still very popular with the masses in the North. And that fact worries the PDP.
The starting point for any serious party, that wants to win the election, is that its candidate must be marketable. And on this score, the APC hit the bull’s eye by settling for Senator Uba Sani, who unlike Isa Ashiru Kudan, delivered dividends of democracy to the people of the state, beyond his senatorial district, despite being a first termer. Isa Ashiru Kudan, the PDP candidate, though twice elected to the House of Representatives, and was deputy chairman of the powerful Appropriations Committee, refused to attract any single project to the state. He is an example of a bad product that is difficult to sell, no matter the proficiency of the seller, or the expertise the party deploys to promote the Isa Ashiru Kudan brand.
The people of Kaduna state are asking the candidates to display their records of performance, to account for the previous mandate to the National Assembly before asking for a fresh mandate. Luckily, Jonathan Asake, like Uba Sani and Isa Ashiru Kudan, was also at the House of Representatives.
Without doubt, Isa Ashiru Kudan is a difficult sale, as difficult as selling tobacco, a commodity known to have killed and continues to kill millions of people. His handlers have an uphill challenge or rather the misfortune of designing a strategy to sell him to the people.
Like cigarette smokers are plainly told they “are liable to die young, if they smoke, so are Kaduna voters being warned of the dire consequences of electing Isa Ashiru Kudan, who just wants to be governor. The same reasons he lost in 2014 to Nasir El-Rufai, for the APC ticket and in 2019 as the PDP candidate; the lack of capacity, the lack of a programme and the lack of any meaningful experience are still the same reasons he will be roundly defeated in 2023 by Uba Sani.
Kaduna state citizens are waiting to see the message his handlers will conjure and deploy, to convince discerning people to patronise such a bad product.
The PDP in Kaduna state knew it goofed big time fielding Isa Ashiru Kudan, a “tobacco” candidate with several other negative baggage. The PDP members are worried that he equally lacks the resources to prosecute the campaigns. Isa Ashiru Kudan comes into the ring with debilitating shackles on all limbs.
On the other hand, Senator Uba Sani’s support base cuts across the parties, and non-card carrying party members. He is more acceptable to most members of the PDP, and has maintained his solid support in his party. Cross voting by the PDP members in 2019 helped El- Rufai to crush Isa Ashiru Kudan and will make a difference in 2023. Uba Sani is young, urbane and parades a track record of effective performance in many previous positions. He is also a networker, with an amazing contact, across all strata of the society, including the civil society.
Consider just a few of his many shackles. Poorly educated and unexposed, he is alleged to possess a fake secondary school certificate, bordering on forgery. This is beyond mere allegation, as it is already the subject of a pending court case, from which he needs to extricate himself. Enlightened voters feel insulted that they might be governed by a man of questionable academic credentials.
Many members of the PDP know that if by any mistake he wins, a proper scrutiny of his credentials won’t stand up to strict judicial adjudication.
Again, Isa Ashiru’s highest attainment in the civil service was the Grade Level 07 post he held at Kaduna State Board of Internal Revenue, which meant he never made any decision. And he left the service in cloudy circumstances during the Col Hamid Ali tenure as military governor. Ali had investigated the staff of the board who were helping themselves with the state revenue. Neither is his political career anything edifying or worth celebrating. In the eight years he spent at the House of Representatives (2007 to 2015) representing the good people of Kudan/Makarfi federal constituency, he did not sponsor a single bill, nor did he promote any project or contribute to debate, to make life better for his people or the nation. Gudaji Kazaure, the member from Jigawa state, despite his passable English, is known to contribute to debates.
Notwithstanding their evident handicap, the PDP strategists will not waste their time and resources promoting their unfit candidate, but to demarket the frontline contestant, in the person of Uba Sani. For one, they will play up the issue of all Muslim joint ticket. Will this cut ice among the voters? Not likely! Kaduna state has thrashed out this very gimmick when they massively gave their mandate to Nasir El-Rufai in 2019, when he contested with Dr Hadiza Balarabe. The same Hadiza is pairing with Uba Sani to seek to complete her second term in office, as deputy governor. Her running with Uba is a plus for the incoming state government, as it would ensure a smoother transition, and go on to oil the wheel of continuity.
The opposition apologists will also try to squeeze out some political mileage from the unfortunate incidents of insecurity plaguing, not only Kaduna state, but nearly all the states of the federation. But, one may ask, can we rightfully blame state governors for the appalling security situation of the country? The honest answer is a no. Why? We know that the federal government has exclusive rights to secure the entire nation. It controls the military, the police, intelligence service, civil defence and all other paramilitary forces in the land.
Therefore, neither El-Rufai nor Uba Sani, whom he openly supports, can be blamed for the parlous security situation in Kaduna state. If anything, both of them deserve kudos for having persistently lent their weighty voices to the search for solutions to widespread insecurity in the land. Recall, for instance, that El-Rufai had led the campaign to designate bandits as terrorists, and for the security forces to bomb them out of existence.
Thankfully, the federal government seemed to have accepted that advice, though belatedly. Recall also that Uba Sani led the campaign for the creation of state police on the floor of the Senate. When it is eventually introduced, armed state police service will bring security closer to the grassroots.
In view of every circumstance on ground, and barring unforeseen political tsaunami, it can safely be said that Senator Uba Sani will be sworn in as the governor of Kaduna state on May 29, 2023. Isa Ashiru Kudan isn’t a threat to this permutation.
In the circumstance that we find ourselves, voters are asking for the candidate, which Uba Sani fits, that can continue to make more dents on the enormous challenges that we face, like El-Rufai has done. Uba Sani has the commitment to improve the welfare of the citizens. You don’t need ideology to build or upgrade schools, hire qualified teachers, improve water supply, build bridges, and promote agriculture.
Ogbuagu writes from Kaduna.
