Since 1979 when Nigeria started practicing the presidential system of government, by trashing the parliamentary system handed over to her by Her Majesty, the Queen of England, at the termination of colonial rule, our elections, particularly presidential, are everything but election. As usual and expectedly, the present 2023 presidential election took our politicking to the “next level” by absolute and complete monetisation of delegates and other sundry involved. The 2023 presidential election also attracted much attention in regards to who became the running mate of the two political gladiators, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) and Atiku Abubakar (Wazirin Adamawa).
From 1979 when the executive system was copy and paste from the United States of America, the issue of running mate never became such an issue like this 2023 presidential election. Even during the second and the aborted third republics, the political parties provided a mechanism of sorting out running mate issues without much hype from outside organisations, particularly religious ones. The current cat and mouse play between BAT and All Progressives Congress, APC, is alien to our political culture.
Religion became the dominant factor of the 2023 presidential running mate unlike in the past where tribe and region were the dominant factors. It is not surprising that religion dominated our politicking in the 21st century instead of competency, capacity and integrity (integrity with reservation based on our current experience) of the candidates, particularly, with the intense pressure by CAN where it arrogates to itself the factor of determining the faith of who becomes a running mate for the two dominant political parties, particularly for APC.
One thing that is a classical feature of the merger that created APC, is the delay for nothing. We all vividly remember how long it took President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) to come out with the first 11 (cabinet), despite the much hype from the Nigerian populace, it took PMB more than six good months. Surprisingly, the team was nothing to write home about. Most Nigerians believe the PMB’s cabinet is one of the most underperforming in Nigerian history! The same thing can be said about the selection of running mates by BAT/Jagaban. Despite the nation’s polity heating up by religious organidations, the BAT team can only present a “PLACEHOLDER”! It is the highest level of disappointment by both BAT and APC. At least the campaign team of BAT should advise him of this political blunder.
There are lots of political blunders with this BAT’s scheming. At numerous fora, BAT told us that being Nigerian president is his lifetime dream. Thus, all this while with the dream of leading Nigeria, BAT never concluded on who will be his running mate? If BAT is really ready to be Nigeria’s president, he would have at least six vice presidential candidates, that is one from each geopolitical zone, thus, overcoming CAN’s cries.
As President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB), candidate Tinubu learned he lost when it comes to selection of a good “first 11 team” member. As we know, it took PMB more than six good months to come up with his cabinet member, which was a glaring disappointment to the nation and even the international community. Likewise, Tinubu’s choice for running mate was such a huge failure and disappointment. With all the campaigning, team Tinubu is only to select Kabir Masari as a running mate! The pertinent questions here are, to what political value is this selection? What political offices experience the selected garnered? Can the selected candidate deliver his ward, local government, state, geopolitical region, etc. These questions are pertinent to the fact that team Tinubu might face internal rebellion for selecting someone with neither political clout nor value. Because, where sacrificing yourself to cause that is going to hit the rock?
By selecting Masari, Tinubu is asserting the political dominance of the North-west geopolitical region in the country. Since 1999, there is no one geopolitical region that enjoyed “dividend of democracy” like the North-west. When the current fourth republic was erected, the speaker of the House of Representatives was Salisu Buhari Daura, replaced with Ghali Umar Na’Abba all from North-west (Kano). Then came in the current governor of Katsina state, Aminu Bello Masari (who happened to be the cousin of Tinubu’s running mate). Then in 2007, Umaru Musa Yar’aduwa was elected President of the Federal Republic, also from North-west. After the demise of Yar’aduwa, Namadi Sambo was selected as vice president, also from North-west. In 2015, General Muhammadu Buhari was elected president of the Federal Republic, also the son of the North-west geopolitical zone.
The North-west also produced two powerful national security advisers, Generals Aliyu Gusau and Abdullahi Sarki Mukhtar. The geopolitical region also dominated the “cabals” of both Yar’aduwa and PMB. Tanimu Kurfi, Abba Sayyadi Ruma, Mamman Daura and Sama’ila Isa Funtuwa, were allegedly the key actors of the “cabals” of both governments. Thus, selecting someone from the North-west geopolitical region is robbing other geopolitical regions of the chance of producing their hands in moving the country forward. By the way, all regions in the country have capable hands that can do the task, if not even more than those from the North-west.
Another theory for BAT’s selection of Masari is that candidate BAT is scared of intimidated pressure from religious groups within the country. The allegation based on this theory is that BAT and his APC team are afraid of presenting a Muslim-Muslim ticket for the general election. Though this is a shallow point considering Masari himself is a Muslim like any other the speculators are considering if not even better spiritually. No matter how shallow this theory is, when looked carefully, one starts to suspect foul play. If not having intention of replacing a Muslim selected candidate, why would team BAT nominate “placeholding” candidate not proper candidate? Thus, BAT is just buying time before he abandons the “placeholding” candidate, the prepared noise makers’ candidate!
This scheming by APC and BAT, might be pertinent in 21st century politicking, particularly that of Africa and Nigeria. But the most important of it, might be that of facing a serious, strong, capable, and Emeritus candidate of Nigerian and government politics in the person of Wazirin Adamawa. For sure BAT and his team know this is a serious contention as both BAT and Waziri are in what might be their last political contention, particularly that of presidential office. Thus, BAT must confront his opponent with all seriousness for him to break the jinx. Without deploying his political ballistics, short, long ranges, and cap it all with nuclear missiles, BAT will be retired to disturbing political history, thus, this scheming of his.
With this gambit of BAT and APC, they give other opposition candidates much room for scheming them out. To this, the common saying in American politicking that, “one day in politicking is more than a year”, and “one year in politicking is less than a day”! nominating “placeholder” will embolden the opposition candidates as they will be much ahead of team BAT in marketing their products (that is if our politics has any ideology and or manifesto for the electorate.to decide).
As the entire nation is thrown into suspension by this BAT’s scheming, the oppositions were given ample chance and opportunity to attack at will, as well as APC and BAT supporters becoming iscouraged for absence of running mate. Right now, BAT’s action is triggering talk of alliance between the New Nigeria People Party, NNPP, (led by Kwankwaso) and Labour Party (LP) led by Peter Obi. This alliance/merger in working must give not only BAT that does not have a proper running mate, but even Wazirin Adamawa sleepless nights. Why? This merger/alliance is an intentional spoiler! That is, they are going into this merger/alliance to create panic out of BAT because BAT and his APC are at the receiving ends of Southeasterners for alleged discrimination, negligence and rest of it. Thus, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso will garner as many votes as possible from both Southeast and Northwest, thus reducing votes harvest by all candidates, particularly the two major gladiators. Which might for the first time in Nigerian political history be forced to go into the second round of election! The PDP too is given ample time to re-strategies its campaign. Which Is more powerful, organized, focused, and prepared than all the other opposition parties put together.
Since the emergence of APC, no doubt that BAT and his lieutenants relied on PMB to market his presidential aspiration. This is one of the areas where BAT will be shocked. Despite BAT’s desperation to become Nigerian president, it is not a secret that BAT seems dependent on the PMB for political support, particularly from PMB’s cult followers in the North. With all things being equal as they stand in Nigeria of today, BAT will be shocked when he is rejected by PMB cults due to PMB’s woeful performance and the insecurity situation in the country. The anticipated reliance or support of PMB was not hidden by BAT. According to blueprint newspaper of June 18th, this year, BAT said “… Up until the 6th of June, 2022, the day of the APC Presidential primaries, the whole of Nigeria, including myself, waiting for you to announce your preferred candidate…However, it was only as the primary went into the night and as the candidates walked up to the podium and spoke that I fully and truly appreciated your position and stance to be neutral and non-aligned to any of us”. This clearly showed that BAT heavily anticipated endorsement (as the American call it) or anointed by PMB!
Thus, heavily delaying a running mate will cause serious political damage to any candidate, particularly in a politics of Africa and Nigerian nature in particular. A political running mate (especially that of a president) is meant to rectify the deficit of political values of the principal runner of the office. For example, where a candidate is deficit in term of economic management, diplomacy, national and global security, business friendly, the running strength on all these and others, will enhance the ticket. Thus, fielding a candidate that no one can holistically evaluate, seems to be jeopardizing one’s political investment. The earlier the BAT team displays their running mate candidate, the easier it will be for Nigerian electorates, and lowering the nation’s political temperature.
Jagaban Burgu, if this is your barka da Sallah to Nigerian electorate, there is no doubt that this barka da Sallah will be rejected squarely.
Mustapha Maikudi Abdullahi,
Texas, United States
[email protected]
