Kaduna 2023: An assessment

The 2023 governorship battle in Kaduna state is predicted by political pundits and analysts to be a very tough contest. However the prospect to emerge victorious at the polls lie on the strength of the two major political parties, i.e. the incumbent ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Nonetheless, the shifting of allegiance from APC and PDP to the Labour Party (LP) which is gaining momentum and widespread support in the Southern part of the state, a stronghold of PDP since 1999, may change the narrative in 2023.

Despite the Labour Party’s support spreading like wildfire, it’s evident the party may hardly find its way to the government house. This is because the movement is confined to one senatorial district.

However, there is the tendency that the Labour Party/Obedient phenomenon would be inimical to the success of PDP, because they may end up spoiling and splitting the votes of PDP in Southern Kaduna.

Consequently, as the general elections draw nearer, and campaign will kick off by the end of September, and the polity is heated, permutations and lobbying are going on around the state, strategising and re-strategising are tirelessly conducted day and night, most especially by the major political parties that apparently have the potentials to win the election.

Thus, let’s analyse the governorship candidates beginning with Senator Uba Sani, the APC standard bearer; and the serving senator representing Kaduna Central District.

Mallam Uba Sani, as he is fondly called, is a household name in Kaduna state. He is an alumnus of the prestigious Kaduna Polytechnic. Politically, he has a vast experience in politics and governance. He was special assistant on public affairs to former President Olusegun Obasanjo; a position assigned to him for creating and maintaining good image to the government.

He also served as the special adviser on political matters to the Governor Nasir El-rufai of Kaduna state, from 2015 to 2019. He was later elected as a senator, a position he cherishes and utilises, exploring it to penetrated the APC rank and file.

Senator Uba Sani is instrumental to the emergence of many APC local government council chairmen. He is one of the most outstanding and vibrant senators in the 9th Senate. He has initiated and presented numerous “Bills” some of which have been signed into law while others are awaiting presidential assent.

They include the Bill seeking for the establishment of “Federal Medical Center Rigasa”, sited in a district under Igabi local government area, whose inhabitants are predominantly 80 percent sympathisers of APC, and whose votes outnumber the votes of two thirds of local government areas in Southern Kaduna, the stronghold of PDP; where they are now massively embracing the Obidient movement.

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He also initiated the bill seeking for the establishment of Federal College of Education Giwa, including so many bills. Hopefully, if those bills were to be assented by the president before the election, verily, Senator Uba Sani could win the hearts of colossal number of people in the Kaduna Central zone, the most populous zone in the state.

Apart from his performance in the Senate, he is visibly enjoying the support of the incumbent governor, as an anointed candidate of the governor, who ostensibly the incumbency factor will tremendously work on his favour, with financial buoyancy at their disposal. And it’s common knowledge, election in Nigeria’s context entails financial implications.

Senator Uba Sani also implemented many constituency projects within his senatorial district, and facilitated the implementation of a lot of corporate social responsibility projects in schools. He immensely helped the youth of Kaduna state – securing employment for them regardless of the constituency they hail from. Indeed, Distinguished Senator Uba Sani is an epitome of selfless service and social welfare, as symbolised by his well wishers.

Rt. Hon Isah Ashiru Kudan is the PDP candidate. He is a civil servant, who later ventured into politics. He is a veteran grassroots politician, who spent 16 good years as a lawmaker, serving at the Kaduna State House of Assembly and later at the House of Representatives.

He served in a juicy committee, as vice chairman appropriation committee in the House of Representatives. He left some good legacies of constituency projects, as the member representing Makarfi/Kudan.

In 2015, he forfeited his seat and opted to vie for the gubernatorial ticket on the platform of APC, but unfortunately lost to Nasir El-Rufai. He was later appointed as the chairman governing council of the University of Benin.

After four years, he didn’t relent, he aspired for the governorship seat and secured the ticket under PDP, but was again defeated at the general election by Governor El-Rufai.

Ashiru is a grassroots politician, as earlier stated. He romances with the grassroots, dines and wines with them without discrimination. That’s what always gives him an edge over the other contestants in the PDP – the locals believe that Ashiru is an icon who cares for the plebians.

Alhaji Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi is also a grassroots politician. He has been in the limelight in the Kaduna political landscape since 1999. He was a commissioner for finance in the Makarfi administration, and later contested for the governorship seat against Makarfi.

He severally contested for the gubernatorial position on different times and different political platforms but has never won. In 2015, he was elected as the senator representing Kaduna North senatorial district, a position he held for four years. Hunkuyi is a doyen in Kaduna politics.

He is a well experienced and political strategist, who’s tagged as a “game changer”. He carries people of diverse affiliations along. But his only kryptonite is that he is regarded as “unprincipled and inconsistent politician”, who invariably changes political party on every electioneering period.

Hunkuyi is currently the 2023 New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) governorship flag bearer, a party perceived to be lacking a robust structure to emerge victorious.

Mr Jonathan Asake is a former state legislator, and the immediate past president of Southern Kaduna People’s Union (SOKAPU), who recently resigned as the SOKAPU president and obtained the Kaduna State governorship ticket of the Labour Party.

Asake’s candidature is expected to split the votes of PDP and APC. He is a renowned activist who fought for the people of Southern Kaduna in the days of adversities and misfortunes.

He is depicted by the people of the Kaduna North and Central District, who are the majority and mainly Hausa/Fulani Muslims; as someone who’s running a sectional agenda. They fear the emergence of a minority as the governor, and would wholeheartedly fight against it.

Therefore, with the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, Senator Uba Sani has an edge over all the aspirants. The polity would be polarised with the vigorous homework and penetration of the Labour Party in the Southern part of the state, which may heighten religious and ethnic emotions.

The dominant Hausa/Fulani could decide to fly the religious flag and put all their eggs in one basket.

Usman writes from Sabon Gari, Tudun Wada, Kaduna.