Kaduna: Who wins battle for Kashim Ibrahim House?

Governor Nasir el-Rufai of the All Progressives Congress (APC) will face his main challenger Honourable Isa Ashiru Kudan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Saturday’s battle for Sir Kashim Ibrahim House. ABDULRAHEEM AODU reports.

Just like the first clash in 2014, this is another fierce contest that would be decided much by the actions of the main actors than by external factors. 

Kaduna 2019 gubernatorial election

Residents of Kaduna state will again make a date with history on Saturday, March 9th, 2019 when they go to their polling units to elect the candidate of their choice as next governor of Kaduna state. The election, which takes place alongside that of members of Kaduna State House of Assembly, comes two weeks after the presidential and National Assembly elections.

Ahead of the exercise, many other political parties’ gubernatorial candidates had stepped and adopted the candidates of the APC and the PDP ensuring that the battle will be mainly between the incumbent governor, Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai of the APC, and former member of House of Representatives Isa Ashiru Kudan of the PDP. This battle is akin to the APC gubernatorial primaries of 2014 that pitched same gladiators against each other.

2014 APC primaries

In 2014, Ashiru, who had then just decamped to APC from the PDP, gave el-Rufai a tough contest in the primaries at the Kaduna International Trade Fair and Investment Complex. It took the intervention of then presidential candidate of the party, General Muhammadu Buhari (retd) who endorsed el-Rufai and called on all his supporters to extend their support to the former FCT minister for him to narrowly beat Ashiru. 

Five years later Ashiru is back in the PDP, el-Rufai still in the APC and the battle is on again this time on a larger scale as they would face not the electoral college but the 3.9 million registered voters in Kaduna state.  

El-Rufai’s chances

On Monday, 32 guber candidates under the aupices of Kaduna State Progressive Governorship Candidates Forum unanimously stepped down for el-Rufai, while 49 parties endorsed and adopted his candidacy. It was a boost for

Speaking at the occasion, the chairman of the Forum and former gubernatorial candidate of United Democratic Party (UDP) Comrade Auwal Abdullahi Aliyu said they adopted him to enable sustain the good work that he has done.

“We have been consulting and have finally taken a decision because of our love for Kaduna state. Because we can’t win, what we intend to do is what he is already doing, so we decided to join forces with him. We are not looking at ourselves, we are looking at Kaduna and its people,” he added, noting that though they have their own programmes and manifestos, they are supporting him to deliver Kaduna.

The governorship candidates include; Auwal Aliyu UDP, Matoh Yakubu AGA, Umar Uba NIP,  Fatima Uba RP, Kabiru Idris MPN, Ahmed Zagi GPN, Mansur Suleiman AA,  Alhaji Yahaya Marafa UPN, Abdulfatai Yusuf WTPN and Umar Suleiman Abubakar DA, Jubril Muhammed ID

Others are Mustapha Bakano APA, Haliru Tafida MRDD, Abubakar Aliyu CAP, Abubakar Abdullahi ZLP, Aminu Sabo ANNP, Hajiya Rabiatu Suleiman Shula NAC, Kabiru Jibril PPA, Adamu Idris Chado DPC, Suleiman Abdulrasheed MMN, Sani Abdulkadir, Mohammed Jamilu Accord Party and Yahaya Solomon NPC among others.

Power of incumbency

Governor el-Rufai enjoys power of incumbency which gave him a wider reach and enabled him to show the people what he can do. And his policies in the last four years especially free feeding, rebuilding and building new classrooms, general education reforms, health reforms through rebuilding and equipping primary healthcare centres in the 225 wards of Kaduna state, housing programmes to create mass housing for all, prompt payment of salary are quite visible. 

It is also believed that APC’s victory in the presidential and National Assembly elections, particularly in Kaduna North and Kaduna Central zones may have charted a course that the coming gubernatorial elections will follow.

Drawbacks for el-Rufai re-election

Governor el-Rufai came into office on the back of a laudable manifesto that gave most citizens of the state hope of a better state, but almost four years on, the hope as yet to become reality in many sectors where the reforms are yet to be completed, while the citizens are still awaiting the efforts to start bearing fruits in other areas.

Pains of teachers’, traditional rulers’ sack

Many people who bear grudges against el-Rufai and thus do not want him to return are direct or indirect victim of the reforms in the traditional institution that saw over 4,000 village and district heads sacked, education reforms that saw over 21,000 teachers sacked and demolition of houses and revocation of lands in parts of the state. They all felt they should help remove a government that treated them ‘unfairly’.

Killings and insurgency in Southern Kaduna, Birni Gwari

The eroded peace in Birnin Gwari local government area spreading up to Giwa, killings and insurgencies in Kajuru, Kachia, Kasuwan Magani and other parts of Southern Kaduna senatorial zone are sticking points in Governor el-Rufai’s governance. Many residents of those parts laid the blame of their challenges on his doorstep and have remained unconvinced despite his efforts and actions. 

Poor relationship with Southern Kaduna people

Governor el-Rufai enjoyed the goodwill of most residents when he came into office but somehow, the relationship with people of Southern Kaduna zone broke down and kept deteriorating to the extent that they have resolved, as a people, not to vote for him or for APC, which partly explained why his deputy, Architect Barnabas Bantex lost his senatorial election to Senator Danjuma La’ah.

Ashiru’s chances

Recently, the gubernatorial candidates of five political parties including APGA’s Philemon Gankon stepped down and endorsed PDP candidate, Hon. Isa Ashiru, thus boosting his chances at the poll.

Ashiru is a grassroots politician who enjoyed wide support across the state hence his ability to sway the APC Electoral College to almost caused upset in 2014. He is still well accepted across the state and particularly in Southern Kaduna where they see him as their own candidate despite hailing from Kudan local government area in Kaduna North senatorial zone.

Ashiru’s integrity is intact having not been found wanting by any government agency despite serving two terms as member House of Representatives and serving as chairman of the House Committee on Appropriation.   

Kaduna boasts of many juggernauts in the PDP including immediate past vice president Namadi Sambo, the former caretaker chairman of the party, Ahmed Makarfi, (both of who were former governors of the state), serving Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi and immediately past governor of Kaduna state Alhaji Mukhtar Yero apart from a horde of ex-ministers and many other previous heads of parastatals, who collectively should be able to steer their party towards victory.

Drawbacks to Ashiru’s victory

The APC enjoys groundswell of support in Kaduna state for President Muhammadu Buhari and will see it as normal service to extend their support to the governorship election.

There is apathy for PDP in many parts of the state where they are in total support of APC and Buhari, apart from parts of Southern Kaduna where they seem to have adopted PDP as their party.

PDP has not come up with clear-cut policies that markedly differentiate it from APC in the state leaving many neutrals tilting towards the devil that they know instead of kowtowing towards the unknown angel. 

The resignation of Alhaji Sani Sidi, who came second to Ashiru in last year’s PDP gubernatorial primaries, from PDP, will be felt by the party, as he left with his followers and supporters who hitherto had helped swell the ranks of the party.

Ashiru of PDP has huge support and would get votes from across the state, but APC’s el-Rufai may just have too many factors in his favour to nick the poll.

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