In this piece, BODE OLAGOKE, takes a look at the chances of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in this year’s kwara State governorship election to choose Governor Hammed Abdulfatai’s successor.
Between APC and PDP
The forthcoming general elections will definitely produce lot of surprises and one of the states to watch is Kwara state. The contest will be a straight political fight between the Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed-led APC and the Senate President, Abubakar Bukola Saraki-led PDP.
Arguably, since the return to democracy in 1999 to 2015, nobody in Kwara has held any political office without the influence of the Sarakis. From Olushola Saraki to his son, Abubakar Saraki, the Sarakis have had firm grip of the state not until the APC administration upstaged the PDP at the centre and the likes of the Lagos based Kwara born Lai Mohammed was appointed a federal minister. Interestingly, the upstage of the PDP was not without the help of Bukola Saraki.
Even with Mohammed’s appointment, Saraki the son was still controlling things in the state by virtue of being the incumbent Senate President and a member of the ruling party then.
But there comes a time, when ambition, political ideology and his disagreement with President Buhari-led federal government made him (Saraki) to dump the ruling party for his former party, the PDP. And since he left, the APC under Lai Mohammed has been doing everything possible not only to stop the influence of the Sarakis on who becomes what in the state but also to prove a point to the Senate President, in particular.
Fictionalised state congress and the court cases
Even before the Senate President and Governor Abdulfatai left the APC, the Kwara state APC had been factionalised. During the state congresses while the Ishola Balogun-Fulani-led state exco was loyal to Saraki, the Bashir Bolarinwa faction had being in the firm control of the information minister, Lai Mohammed.
But following the defection of the Senate President Saraki and Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed from the APC to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the National Working Committee of the APC dissolved the executive committees of the party at all levels in the state and established a state caretaker committee with which favoured Bolarinwa as chairman.
Saraki’s loyalists in the dissolved state executive led by Ishola Balogun-Fulani, however, refused to accept the party’s decision and are contesting it in court.
Rancorous APC governorship primary
Like most state chapters of the APC, the governorship primaries of the party in Kwara state threw up contentions, arguments and divisions. As usual, opinions were divided before the primaries. There are groups which believed that it was the turn of Kwara North to produce the governor for the state, while a number of other chieftains believed that the slot should go elsewhere. The battle was intense as tempers rose in the build-up to the primaries.
Following the primaries that produced Alhaji Abdulrahaman Abdulrazaq from Kwara Central, tempers further flared up as the party faithful, who favoured the emergence of the candidate from the Northern senatorial district, won’t just give up. Members were left divided along different religious, ethnic and cultural sentiments.
Some aggrieved members of the party, who claimed to be concerned foundation members, had alleged unfair treatment of their aspirants during the party’s primaries, as they laid siege to the secretariat along old Jebba road in Ilorin, the state capital. And for days, the aggrieved members slept on mats in the secretariat before taking their protest to Abuja.
But after all said and done, the NWC was said to uncovered the action of the Senate President, who had a preferred candidate in the party governorship primaries, a move that made the APC national leadership to immediately put in place measures to identify and weed out those considered to be the protégés of Dr Saraki.
The results of the governorship election in the state were not announced by the panel which conducted it. The NWC of the party had to meet, deliberate on it and then announced Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, who was considered not a protégé of Saraki, the winner.
Court judgement
The Kwara State High Court, in a judgement that further rattled the APC, recently recognised the executive committee of the Isola Balogun-Fulani faction of the APC in the state.
Balogun-Fulani and the other APC leaders in his team, who are ardent supporters of Senate President Saraki, did not defect to the PDP with their principal. Analysts believe that Saraki left them for a purpose.
But reacting to the judgement, counsel to the Bashir Bolarinwa faction of the party, Kamaldeen Gambari, which is loyal to the Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, said they were not satisfied with the judgement, adding that the court acted contrary to the facts placed before it.
Gambari, who said the judgement would not stand, added that he had already filed an appeal against the judgement, and expressed the hope that the Appeal Court would upturn the judgement.
In a judgement read by Justice T.S. Umar, the court held that the purported dissolution of the executive committee of the APC led by Balogun-Fulani was illegal, null and void.
The judgement further held that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should recognize the list of members of the executive committee presented by the Kwara APC executive committee led by the Balogun-Fulani faction.
But the NWC of APC in a statement rather reaffirmed that Balogun-Fulani-led APC faction had been expelled from the party.
PDP rerun election’s lost
But despite instability in the APC and the defection of both the governor and the godfather of Kwara politics (Saraki) to the PDP, the Lai Mohammed’s led team was able to defeat its main opponent in the recent rerun election in Kwara state.
Pls use pixs of APC guber candidate, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, Gov AbdulFatih Ahmed.
Will the Saraki’s dynasty be broken?
The by-election was called following the death of Funke Adedoyin, who was representing the constituency.
But surprisingly, Raheem Olawuyi Ajuloopin, candidate of the APC) for the House of representatives bye-election, won the vacant seat for Ekiti/Oke-Ero/Irepodun/Isin federal constituency with 21,236 votes compare to the PDP’s 18,095 votes.
Reacting to the development, the joyous APC government at the centre took the victory rather personal against the person of Saraki, who was losing the first election after rejoining the PDP.
For the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha, the victory of the APC in the by-election was the ‘sweetest’ so far.
For one of the main actors, the Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, the result was an indication that the President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, was no longer in control of the state.
Addressing an APC victory rally in Oro, his home town, the Minister said, “Many people believed that Saraki could not be defeated in any election in Kwara State.
“We have proved him wrong that he is in control of the state; yesterday’s (Saturday) election result has proved him wrong.
“What gave us victory in the Saturday election was the absence of political thugs and the neutrality of security agencies,” he added.
Also, the chairman of the state chapter of the APC, Bashir Bolarinwa, said the election result showed that people of the state had decided to hold their destiny in their own hands and decide their fate.
Although, the state chairman of the PDP, Kola Shittu, described the election as a charade and direct assault on the nation’s democracy. Shittu alleged that the election was characterised by snatching of ballot boxes and illegal arrest of members of the PDP among others.
The party chairman said, “The PDP condemns in strong terms the conduct of the by-election and rejects its outcome, as it does not reflect the will of the people of Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Isin and Irepodun local government areas.
“The announcement of the candidate of the APC as the winner of the election by the Independent National Electoral Commission is a daylight robbery, subversion of the will of the people and direct assault on the nation’s democracy.
“Indeed, the election was a contest between the PDP and the security agents, as they collaborated with the enemies of democracy, APC, to manipulate the electoral process
Saraki vs Lai
When you compare and contrast between the leaders of the PDP and APC in Kwara state, it may be so easy to determine who wins the forthcoming election but at the same time, politics, they says is not two plus two which is always equal to four.
Politically, Lai Mohammed used to be a paperweight politician in Kwara until recently. In all the political contests he had participated in the state until 2015, Mohammed has never won even a local government. Again, he was based in Lagos, held few political appointments under the former Lagos state governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. But for the federal might, everything is possible.
But for the current godfather of politics in Kwara, his name speaks volume. The Senate President inherited political spotlight from his late father. He started politics early in the state and rose to become a two- term governor of the state. He has the money, has the strategies and the state government apparatus, including the current governor, Abdulfatai Hammed, who succeeded him as governor, at his disposal.
Can APC win Kwara?
Going by a survey conducted by a leading pro-Democracy group in Kwara state, Kwara Must Change (KMC) which predicted in its report that the All Progressives Congress (APC) will win the November 17th bye- election which took place in Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Isin and Irepodun federal constituency of Kwara state with over 70 percent margin, though the APC did not win by 70 percent but eventually won.
The survey, according to the group which engaged 250 people in each of the 4 local government areas where the by election would be taking place, the result shows that more than 70 percent of the population are ready to vote against any candidate of the Bukola Saraki-led dynasty and as the major opposition party in the state, the APC happens to be a beneficiary of the peoples’ collective resolve to end Saraki’s dynasty once and for all.
Residents in the areas covered noted that, the level of political awareness about the state of affairs in the state is at all time high, as virtually all Kwarans are now more informed than ever before, adding that people who prefer to stick to Saraki led dynasty are doing so for personal reasons.
Reason for the upsurge in public consciousness is not unconnected to the rise in the activities of political movements, civil society groups and establishment of private radio stations.
It was noted that “Even in rural areas where there is low public engagement, the direct engagement of the people by Kwara Must Change (KMC) grassroots network has significantly increased the level of sensitization.
Additionally, the proliferation of private radio stations in the state, particularly radio station that focused on local content also contributed to the astronomic increase in public awareness. It was further noted that, the consistent political engagements on these radio stations over time has helped to provide the public with valuable insights and perspective about issues that shaped public understanding.
Many also observed that, activities of civil and pro-democracy groups like Kwara Must Change has significantly contributed to the mass awareness.
For example, Kwara Must Change consistent engagement with the government on all important public issues was credited to have shaped local perception and has given many inspirations to take definite position about their political choices, the group said.
Aside, the survey many APC leaders, including President Muhammadu Buhari, have expressed confidence that Saraki and his party (PDP) will be defeated in this year’s elections, a wish many Nigerians outside the state are sceptical of its reality.
Conclusion
For the APC to have good outing in the coming elections, it is, however apparent that the leadership of the party in the state, under the chairmanship of Hon. Bashir Bolarinwa, got its hand full and is compelled to turn in solutions in a manner reminiscent of 100 metres dash. This is in view of the contending forces and endless agitations among the all-powerful caucuses of stakeholders in the party. If this is done, perhaps, with the backing of the federal might, in a free and fair election, the tide might change but until then, Saraki alone is more than a political party in Kwara state.
