Vetiva Research has predicted that the Nigerian economy will rebound by 3.1 per cent in 2021.
In its second half of 2021 macroeconomic outlook for the Nigerian economy, titled, “On the cusp of recovery,” the Lagos-based firm appraised developments on the global, continental and domestic scenes.
On the global scene, the analysts reviewed the COVID-19 virus and vaccine developments, the global recovery trajectory, and the build-up in global inflation.
Vetiva’s Economist, Ibukun Omoyeni, noted that economic indicators suggest advanced economies could rebound faster than emerging economies, in contrast with the expectations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“This is because sustained policy support and strong vaccination drive in advanced economies could place them ahead of emerging economies, which are reeling from resurging outbreaks of infectious variants,” he said.
Omoyeni identified five key global macroeconomic themes which could gain traction in the second half of the year.
This borders around vaccine diplomacy, geopolitics, de-dollarisation & digital currencies, commodity super-cycle, and a global minimum tax.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, he attributed the mild contraction in the region to the slower spread of the virus, low death rates, the dominance of the agricultural sector and rebound in commodity prices.
According to the report, the region may not recover as fast as other regions due to limited fiscal space and emerging inflationary threats.