The Boko Haram insurgency has been in existence since 2002 and ravaging, killing, displacing millions of Nigerians since 2009 claiming to be fighting for a ‘cause’ in which they have been utilizing for their gruesome attacks on soft targets mostly around the North eastern part of Nigeria, they claim they want to purify Islam in the North and also that ‘Western Education is Haram (forbidden) and always forget that the weapons they use are products of western education, this confusion by the sect is an indication that they have no other agenda than to cause mayhem.
In the course of 18 years, tens of thousands have been killed, millions displaced and many captured for trade in slaves while some married as domestic wives and others captured for *ransom. In this same course of 18 years, several approaches and strategies have been deployed to either quench the sect or consider an amnesty with the sect but all have been white elephant, 4 different regimes of civilians administrations have passed in the last 18 years and yet none has been able to finish up these insurgents.
The Nigerian military as at 2017 according to the World Bank data organization is said to have about 310,000 active personnel which in 2020 has reduced drastically to about 200,000 active personnel, The Nigerian population now is approximately 200 million and that gives the ratio of 1 soldier to about 1000 civilians. The Nigerian military is underpopulated compared to the Nigerian population, This underpopulation in the Nigerian Armed Forces is one of the main reasons Nigeria has not defeated Boko Haram.
According to war experts, for Nigeria to win an asymmetric war like that of Boko Haram we must outnumber them by ratio 6:1. The most ravaged part of Nigeria by the Boko Haram is the North-east and Nigeria has never put up to 40,000 troops to the North east to fight the sect which they are believed to be about 20,000 according to Amnesty International. The Boko Haram sect has adopted a national forest in the North-east as their safe haven, Sambisa-Sümpfe popularly called Sambisa Forest which spans across six states in Nigeria; parts of the states of Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Bauchi along the corridor Dorado, Jigawa state and some parts of Kano state farther north. The Sambisa forest is about 6.5% of the total Nigerian land mass and the forest gives the Boko Haram sect the opportunity to be mobile, on any event they are spotted somewhere they can move to another location with ease. Looking at the land mass of the forest, Nigeria needs to send atleast 100,000 active personnel to identity and quench these terrorists effectively.
Egypt has a population of 99 million and their military population is about 450,000 giving the ratio of 1 soldier to 220 civilians. Egypt’s population is half Nigeria’s population and Egypt has more military personnel than Nigeria, Egypt is not facing any form of terrorism or banditry and yet they recruit more military personnel than Nigeria does, it is a pity that Nigeria does not take advantage of her youthful population to recruit soliders. Nigeria needs to recruit about 50,000 military personnel annually for the next 10 years in order to keep the solider to civilian ratio at a fair state.
Also the Nigerian military, Nigerian police and other security agencies need to soildify thier fusion to get rid of Boko Haram, the lack of this solid fusion is why The Nigerian Army usually recapture a location more than twice because they have the capacity to chase the terrorists away but they are incapacitated in retaining the soldiers at these locations, this is where the police and other security agencies should come in, after the Nigerian Army has successfully recaptured a location the police and other security agencies should man these places and prevent further recapture by the sect. For example Baga community in Borno state has been recaptured by the Nigerian military more than once, if the police were cooperative to man this town after the army recapture, the terrorists wouldn’t have returned to Baga in such manner. This cooperation denotes that there needs to be a solid fusion between the Nigerian Army and all other security agencies . It’s the duty of the Police and other security agencies to secure lives and properties as well as the army to defend the nation. The Nigerian police and other security agencies in Nigeria cannot join the military in this war against Boko Haram without getting adequate equipments, the police and other security agencies need more armoured tanks, ballistic vests and helmets, gun trucks and ballistic drones, e.t.c in order to help guard these communities from reoccurring attacks. It is high time Nigeria equipped its police adequately.
Again, in winning the war against Boko Haram in Nigeria, The Army needs to re-strategize and adequately investigate how the Sect get weapons in order to cut the nib in the bud, one way or the other the weapons used by the Boko Haram will have passed through the Nigerian borders most commonly by road. Boko haram does not have the capacity to make guns and bullets, they have to purchase guns and ammunition, look at the pictures of weapons recovered from Boko Haram, the most common rifle is an AK-47 followed by grenade launchers and these weapons don’t look fabricated, the only thing the Boko Haram sect produce locally is land mine or better still improvised explosive devices (IED).
The Nigerian Army needs to find and quench where the terrorists source for weapons. The Boko Haram members that surrendered, to what extent have they been able to provided actionable Intel about funding and logistics operations, 602 of them and not one has been able to provide adequate information on how they get weapons or how they are funded to buy Weapons from the so called black market ?
Rather than be contemplating on sending them abroad for education or reintegrating them into the society, the Nigerian Army should use them to get actionable intel on Boko Haram operations so the Army can blockade their weapon routes and take over their weapons supply in order to cut their wings, if the Boko Haram sect weapon’s supply should be overthrown by the Army the war against them is then one step away from being victorious.
The Nigerian Army needs to go back memory lane and re-visualize to when Nigeria was voted as the best foot troop in military operation during Nigeria’s intervention to Liberia, this intervention to Liberia was the also the best time of Nigeria’s military prowess and adopt some of the tactics and strategies used then to fight Boko Haram. Nigeria has shown military prowess in interventions more than they have shown in the war against Boko Haram. The Nigerian Army should note that victims of Boko Haram insurgency have been living in Isolation centres for more than seven years majority of them won’t remember how home looked like or would even want to go back to their homes, due to fear of death, rape and slavery, many have lost their farmlands for agriculture and herds of cattle to this insurgency, Borno state has more than 100 communities not inhabited by people due to Boko Haram insurgency, it is high time the Nigerian Army finished these terrorists up and regain peace and tranquility back to all lands in Nigeria
Comrade Bayo Erubami,
Abuja
