A poll conducted by Stears, an African data and intelligence company, has revealed that the presidential candidate of Labour Party, Peter Obi will get 25% of the vote in most geopolitical regions of the country.
The poll revealed that Obi is the only candidate capable of getting 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of the states.
While his All Progressives Congress (APC), followed with four out of five, as the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), candidate, Atiku Abubakar secured 25% of the vote in only two geopolitical zones.
Notably, the result of the poll revealed that Peter Obi only failed to secure 25% of the vote preference in the North-West region, due to the relatively strong presence of Rabiu KwanKwaso of the NNPP and Bola Tinubu of APC.
Specifically, in Kano State, which is a stronghold for Rabiu Kwankwaso, 20% of the interviewed voters opted to vote for the NNPP, while APC followed closely with 17%. On the other hand, 40% of the voters were silent, indicating that the results could still swing in the favour of any of the aspirants.
According to the findings of the poll, Peter Obi appears to be the favourite based on declared votes, with 27% of the voters interviewed indicating their support for Peter Obi, while Tinubu followed at a distance with 15%.
Atiku Abubakar recorded 12% votes. Meanwhile, there were 37% of the voters did not indicate their preferred candidate, hereby affecting the possible outcome of the coming election.
Hence, the predictive model shows that Peter Obi is likely to win with a 41% proportion of the vote if there is a high turnout in the election, followed by Tinubu and Atiku with 31% and 20% votes respectively.
Meanwhile, in a scenario where there is low voter turnout, Bola Tinubu is predicted to win the election with a percentage of 39%, followed by Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar with 32% and 22% respectively.
Meanwhile, having predicted the possible choices of the silent voters, Peter Obi still maintains the lead in the race for the presidential seat.
“Even after including silent voters, Peter Obi holds a comfortable lead. In essence, the Stears electoral poll and prediction model affirms that Peter Obi is by far the most popular and desired candidate for the 2023 Presidential Elections,” the report reads.
