A leading Pro-Democracy group, Kwara Must Change, has released its projection for the 2023 general election in Kwara state.
The group, which its projection in 2019 election was 100% accurate also outlines competitive local government areas, which it describes as “battle grounds with strong opposition presence and too close to predict due to changing dynamics”.
In a statement Sunday by its convener, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, the group explained that, the “2023 Kwara Political Landscape” research is part of its efforts to provide members of the public, particularly the business community an insight into the political landscape, to guide their investment and business interest and decisions.
According to Hamzat, “The independent research will also enable political parties and candidates make informed decisions about their chances and prospect, with the aim of enhancing democratic conversation and political politicking.
“Kwara Must Change research and electoral projections will assist business owners and investors have insight into the political landscape of Kwara state ahead of the general election to guide their business decisions, investment and strategy “
“It would also help political parties, candidates and their supporters to shape their expectations, hope and enhance their motivation,” Hamzat said.
Projecting the outcome of 2023 elections across the 16 local government areas of the state, Hamzat stated that, in 12 local govt areas of Kwara state, which is 75% of the state, the election will not be so competitive because the ruling party, All Progressive Congress (APC) will comfortably coast home to victory.
“The 12 local govt areas are largely domiciled in Kwara north and Kwara central senatorial district, with some being in Kwara South senatorial district,” Hamzat said.
“However, out of the remaining four battle grounds local govts, the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will compete for victory in 3, namely Oke-Ero, Oyun and Ifelodun local govt, while another opposition party, Social Democratic Party (SDP) would compete for victory in 2 local govt, namely Irepodun and Ifelodun local govt,” Hamzat said.
He also noted that, another political party, African Democratic Congress (ADC) may also compete for victory in Ifelodun local government, thereby making Ifelodun local government the most competitive in the forthcoming election.
By this report, APC is likely to win the two Senate and four Reps election in both Kwara Central and Kwara North without much competition, but the party has strong competition to contend with in at least four local government areas in Kwara South.