By this time next week General (rtd) Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s one-time military head of state, would have officially announced his intent to vie for the position of the president of Nigeria under the platform of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). But that would only be a confirmation of what had been suspected from the time a mega merger of opposition parties was consummated last year. Let me warn from the outset that I am an unapologetic Buhari supporter. But this piece, well beyond eulogising the man Buhari, is an attempt to realistically moderate my optimism of the outcome of his planned voyage in the face of a familiar, though seemingly surmountable, but often, unfortunately, insurmountable threat.
On December 31, 1983, the day President Shehu Shagari’s government was overthrown, I was only a teenager in a junior class in secondary school. But I was a keen newspaper reader and, even as innocent as my mind was, I knew, like most Nigerians did, that Nigeria was sailing through a turbulent sea.
The elections a few months earlier were anything but free and fair. The ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) had romped to victory even in opposition safe zones amidst allegations of widespread malpractices. And mayhem reminiscent of the ‘wild, wild west’ or ‘operation wet e’ of the First Republic had been unleashed in the old Oyo and Ondo States where NPN’s Chief Omololu Olunloyo and Chief Akin Omoboriowo had been declared winners of the gubernatorial elections in the respective states. The tension was unmistakeably simmering. So Shagari’s sack (and the Second Republic’s) was only waiting to happen.
The coup had cost the life of a principal player, Brigadier Ibrahim Bako. And Buhari, a man whose integrity remains incontestable, was, by Bako’s death, catapulted into the succession equation and unanimously favoured. But his choice, regardless of the countless patriotic policies of the regime, would become his nemesis. Thanks to a carefully choreographed smear campaign that is anchored on the front burner of a hostile media whose crave for vendetta is conscienceless.
And because our minds have been so choreographed Buhari only comes across as a rudderless soldier whose insatiable quest for power led to the sack of the Second Republic in 1983 and, continuously, sets off him to play the Oliver Twist. We don’t remember that events in 1983, including newspaper editorials and endless media jingles, had called for and, initially, endorsed the coup because it was thought it would result in the invalidation of the victory NPN had, through the FEDECO (Federal Electoral Commission), awarded itself. And because the opposition, which felt more wronged, were not asked to step into the vacuum NPN’s tumble created, Buhari is perpetually vilified.
To round off campaign in 2011 The Buhari/Bakare train made a stopover in Lagos. Its plan was to appeal to and, therefore, pacify those opposed to a Buhari presidency on grounds of previous wrongs. Lagos was decidedly against a Buhari candidacy particular due to the cancellation of Metroline (mass transit) rail project in 1985. In meetings with leaders in the all important city which had been considered a gateway to a southwest bloc vote Buhari’s sins, topmost of which was the annulled project, were laid bare. And, as it seemed after the talks, a deal was struck. When I called a friend to find out the outcome, he sounded almost ‘unrestrainedly’ optimistic despite the ACN and CPC merger falling through. But we all know what eventually happened.
Since the 2011 election which returned this regime to power we have been witnesses to an unparalleled progressive plunge of our country. But our excuses, of course fuelled by a choreographed memory, are that given more time and without such challenges as the Boko Haram and so on, the regime could excel. We forget that governance is an art that foresees, prevents and, if they do occur, tackles challenges. You don’t get to power and expect jamborees.
Apart from the mega merger, the lack of which many of us blamed for the failure of the opposition to dislodge the ruling party in 2011, nothing much has changed since Buhari’s last outing to give a glimmer of hope this time out. Rather, a few more threats have developed to a point they can’t not be ignored. And a Buhari candidacy would have to deal with them, first of all, to progress to the next level.
The mega merger has brought together all sorts of politicians, with interests that could be at variance and, as such, a likely time bomb. Former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, has announced his intention to bear APC’s flag at the election. And, apart from Buhari, at least four more potential candidates could emerge shortly. But only one person would be allowed to fly APC’s flag.
When I earlier mentioned moderating my optimism there were among the many factors I was thinking of. I am concerned about the outrageous fee (27.5 million naira) each aspirant for APC’s slot would have to part with to be eligible to contest. I am worried about the ability of poor contestants like Buhari to raise such amount and the possibility of the money bags that ported to the party stealing the show. I really am alarmed that, in the end, the contest could result in divisions and the eventual collapse of the merger. My mind tells me unless the party treads cautiously it could hand the PDP, which already enjoys the advantage of incumbency that only hopelessly vain democracies like ours hand an incumbent regime, an outright victory.
(To be continued).
