Population: Nigeria’s ticking time bomb

Nigeria is a very populous country with poor Human Development Index, including limited access to health care, low level of education and standard of living. In this report, SAMSON BENJAMIN examines how a potential national asset has become a liability.

Almost everyone knows of the problem but the National Population Commission (NPC) has put it on the front burner by reeling out figures. Recently, NPC put Nigeria’s current population at 198 million people, with urban population growing at an average annual growth rate of about 6.5 percent. Chairman of NPC, Mr Eze Duruiheoma, stated this in New York while delivering Nigeria’s statement on Sustainable Cities, Human Mobility and International Migration at the 51st Session of Commission on Population and Development.

According to Duruiheoma, “Nigeria remains the most populous in Africa, the seventh globally with an estimated population of over 198 million”. By 2050, the recent World population prospects predicts that Nigeria will become the third most populated country on the globe.

Ordinarily, human beings constitute the greatest and most potent assets of any country, and given our abundant natural resources, a growing population should be a blessing in Nigeria. In theory, a large and active population means a productive workforce that will increase the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). More so, at a time when the population of many European and Asian countries is ageing, a growing population like Nigeria’s ought to be a source of envy and emulation.

However, the converse is the case owing largely to poor Human Development Index, including limited access to health care, low level of education and standard of living. In addition, the mono-cultural economic base of the country which relies largely on crude oil, makes it vulnerable to fluctuating oil prices in the international market. In summary, Nigeria is a potentially rich country but most of the people are poor and this paradox is scaring.

Experts query NPC figures
Specifically, since the revelation of the new population estimate, the controversy over Nigeria’s exact population has reared up its head. While some think the figure is a mere assumption, others seek to know how NPC arrived at it. According to Mr Soji Omotosho , a statistician with Population Watch, a Non Governmental Organisation, the way and manner NPC “arrived at a figure of 198 million without diligent national headcount , puts the estimate to question.’’ He warned that dishing out bogus population figures can be very contentious and will be difficult to defend, ‘’especially if the figures are based on the 2006 population census that was contested by many states, particularly Lagos”.

Similarly, Dr. Yakubu Angie, a lecturer in the Department of Economics, Nasarawa State University, said that ‘’the storm over Nigeria’s actual population figure is a recurrent issue , which gives room for various estimates from both within and outside the country .

The truth is that we do not know exactly how many we are . Consequently , it is not that simple for the NPC or any other authority anywhere, to come up with figures that will not raise doubts.’’ The lecturer argued that ‘’ in 2016 , the World Bank estimated Nigeria’s population to be 186 million . Also , the United Nations in 2017 put Nigeria’s population at 180 million with a growth rate of 2 .7 per cent. Prior to that , in 2016 , the former Director- General of the NPC , Alhaji Ghali Bello, estimated Nigeria’s population to be 182 million with a growth rate of 3.5 per cent . If the base population from which the estimates are made were correct , why then are the figures different ? Certainly , each of these figures are questionable and each estimate is based on a different base population.’’

In the same vein, the Statistician- General of the Federation , Dr . Yemi Kale had earlier disputed the nation’s populations figures that were being bandied about. In 2016, he disagreed with the estimates which put Nigeria ’ s population between 170 or 180 million, arguing that it is incorrect and based on mere speculation . In addition, Dr Kale has dismissed NPC’s latest estimate of 198 million as incorrect.

NPC stands by its figures
Significantly, NPC is standing by its figures in spite of the uproar about its authenticity. According to the commission, the nation’s estimated 198 million population is based on an annual population growth of 3.2 percent, spanning from 2006 till date. The NPC chairman said that “there are deaths and births and nobody imagined that there will be more deaths than births. Irrespective of what anyone thinks about deaths, there are always more births than deaths and that is why the 3.2 annual growth rate is used in arriving at the current population figure. Mr Duruiheoma further said that ‘’the most important thing now is to conduct another census to ascertain the country’s actual population. We want to do away with the projected figures because there is more to census than funds and we are waiting for a presidential proclamation that will empower NPC to conduct the head count.’’ . Precisely, a national population census was earlier scheduled for 2018 but has been shelved due to budgetary challenges. A whopping N 272 billion was proposed by the NPC , a sum that some top government officials said the nation could hardly afford.

Population boom or doom?
Specially, beyond the accuracy of the figures, more serious concerns have been raised, especially about a rapid population growth without commensurate increase in infrastructure, economic growth and development. In particular, government agencies, development partners and NGOs have been agonizing over the problem. Recently, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo raised concerns about Nigeria’s rising population when he met Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus, the visiting Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO). According to Osinbajo, “we are in challenging times and in the next decade or two, we will have more challenges given that the population is growing and this calls for a lot of work especially with regards to health of our citizens”.

Similarly, the British High Commissioner to Nigeria , Mr Paul Arkwright , at a conference organised by some NGOs and the British High Commission on Nigeria’s rising birth pattern in Abuja , painted a doomsday scenario ‘’ of a demographic disaster in the making, especially with so many young people jobless, the lack of access to health programmes and competition for resources .’’

Speaking with Blueprint Weekend , a Development Economist with the Center for Social Research, Dr. John Laah said “that population is a blessing but that in Nigeria, it seems to be a curse”. This is because, according to him, “there is no corresponding economic growth as the population grows”. He argued that “unless there is commensurate economic growth, uncontrolled population growth will put the country into serious problems. Laah further argued that social and infrastructural facilities must expand as the county’s population increases. Also, a greater percentage of the people must be engaged for the population growth to be beneficial”. This, according to him, “must be pursued vigorously by the government rather than paying lip service to the people”.

Similarly, a social commentator and a lecturer in the Department of Geography and Regional Planning, Nasarawa State University, Mr Yusuf Macaulay said that “a country whose population skyrocketed from an estimated 142.6 million in 2006, according to the census of that year, to nearly 200 million, a 40 million increase within 12 years, has a lot to worry about. Nigeria is already identified as the country with the most rapidly-expanding population in the world such that by 2050, we could become the third most populous country in the world”. He added that “Nigeria is breeding human beings with very little effort to cater for them. Our economy, which is just limping painfully out of the latest recession, is growing at less than one per cent. It performed far below the federal government’s 2.19 forecast for 2017.”

Is family planning the way out?
So what can be done to defuse this ticking time bomb? Various Nigerian governments have attempted to promote family planning, but these programmes have had limited impact due to their modest scope and inability to change deeply embedded cultural and religious sensibilities that encourage large families. Ms Josephine Edun, Executive Director Safe Motherhood Initiative, a Civil Society Organisation said that “we do not have effective planning mechanism. There is also no population control mechanism.

The country needs a national framework to respond to the population boom, if not there is going to be a complicated economic and cultural crisis.” However, she pointed out that “pushing birth control is not easy in a society where children are widely regarded as ‘blessings from God’. Where human interference in such heavenly matters is considered arrogant and presumptuous”.

Can birth be controlled?
Delivering a paper at a workshop organised by Society for Family Health in Lagos recently, the Clinical Officer, Planned Parenthood Federation of Nigeria (PPFN), Mrs. Funke Hassan said that even with lots of awareness campaigns and sensitisation programmes by their organisation, some families are still not taking family planning seriously. According to her, ‘’initially, people were not responding that much but now we are seeing more people coming for family planning. We had to do a lot of mobilisation, campaigns and create awareness. We go to market places, motor parks and other public places to do sensitisation.

People still have this misconception about family planning that it prevents them from having children. All these beliefs hinder them from coming for family planning. It was a barrier preventing them from accepting family planning but these days, we are seeing more people coming on their own accord, especially as the harsh economic situation in the country bites harder; so they need to control the number of people they have to feed. People now want to limit the number of children they can afford to take care of.’’

In addition, Mrs Hassan blamed poverty and lack of education as the cause of population explosion in the country. She noticed that people that give birth to more children are actually the illiterates and the poor in the society. “From my observation and interaction in the cause of doing this job, I will say that about 70 per cent of people with large families are those that are poor or low income earners and the illiterates. It’s mainly because they are looking for a particular sex, usually male; they end up having more than five or six children.

We noticed that when we speak with those who are educated on family planning, they quickly understand us and agree to participate unlike when you are trying to enlighten the less educated ones. That is why we go out a lot to do awareness campaigns to teach more people in local languages, the importance of family planning,” she said. The PPFN official also noted that “cultural and religious barriers stop people from coming in for family planning and this can also lead to population explosion in the country if it is not nipped in the bud”. Mrs Hassan called on the federal government to make family planning more accessible and free for everyone as this will encourage more people to come in for it.

Is child policy possible in Nigeria?
In the late 1970s and early ’80s, China was implementing the one-child policy in order to check their ballooned population. By the late 1970s, the country’s population was rapidly approaching the one-billion mark and the leadership headed by Deng Xiaoping, was getting more concerned. Initially, a voluntary program was announced in late 1978 that encouraged families to have not more than two children, one child preferably. However, in September 1980, the central government standardized the one-child policy nationwide. In a public letter published by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, the policy came into effect.

However, the policy was relaxed in 2013, when the National Health and Family Planning Commission said that “China’s population will not grow substantially in the short term”. According to the commission, a survey found out that only about half of eligible couples wish to have two children, mostly because of the cost of living impact of a second child. In November, China announced the decision to relax the one-child policy. Under the new policy, families could have two children if one parent, rather than both parents, was an only child.

Significantly, the idea of child policy was mooted in the 1990s, during the military administration of President Ibrahim Babangida. At that time, First Lady Maryam Babangida made the suggestion through her pet programme, the Better Life for Rural Women, where couples were advised to bear only four children. However, this policy was roundly criticized by the traditional and religious establishments and it didn’t really take off.

Right now, this kind of policy will be politically dangerous for any party or administration to make, Malam Abdul Musa, a Kaduna-based social commentator told Blueprint Weekend. According to him, ‘’population is the lifeline of politics, the more supporters a politician has, the more his chances of getting elected or influencing policies. Politics is a game of numbers and since resource allocation and election are hinged on population, no politician or political party will dare take the bull by the horns.’’ Malam Abdul agreed that ‘’so long as population is seen as socio-economic and political determinant of who gets what in society, rather than a tool for planning purposes, our population will continue to spiral out of control.’’

In Nigeria and indeed most developing countries, politics permeates everywhere and its in everything.

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