As the stage is set for the commencement of the presidential campaigns for the2023 general elections ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU examines how the candidates of the three major political parties stand based on new data emanating from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
The presidential and National Assembly elections are slated for February 25, 2023, on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) schedule of activities for the 2023 general elections.
The commission is expected to publish the final list of candidates for both presidential and National Assembly elections on September 20, while the campaigns are scheduled to commence on September 28.
There are 18 Presidential candidates whose names and parties will appear on the ballot, however, the political permutations have shown that the contest may be a 3-horse-race among candidates of the three major political parties, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progresives Congress (APC); former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP).
95 million voters to decide
INEC in August 2022 showed that the number of registered voters stood at 96.2million; just as the spread according to data made available by electoral umpire showed that North-west geopolitical zone led the chat with a total of 22.67 million registered voters. The region was followed by the South-west, which has 18.3m voters.
Similarly, the date indicated that in the South-south zone the number of registered voters had risen from 12.8 million to 15.2 million.
The fourth was the North-central zone with 14.1 million voters, while the North-east followed with 12.8 million registered voters.
The South-east, which is the smallest geopolitical zone and consisting of five states: Ebonyi, Enugu, Abia, Anambra and Imo, had 11.49 million voters, while the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) had 1.5 million voters.
However, INEC recently said that 1,126,359 out of the 2,523,458 fresh registrants that registered between June 28, 2021, and January 14, 2022, were found to be invalid and consequently delisted.
The commission claimed that several double, multiple, and ineligible registrants had also been detected and invalidated, including entries that failed to meet the commission’s business rules.
With the voter spread, party structure, popularity and other factors Tinubu, Atiku and Obi appear to already be in advantageous positions over other presidential candidates.
APC’s Tinubu
The two-term Lagos state Governor, who clinched the ruling APC ticket against all odds, is in the race to fulfil his lifetime ambition.
The performance of the candidate, who is in his early 70s, as governor of Lagos state, his large political support base across the country, within and outside the APC and his financial war chest have made him a candidate to beat.
Another factor that may strengthen Tinubu’s chances at clinching the highest office in the land is the power of incumbency with the APC controlling the government at the centre as well as 22 states out of the 36 states.
However, his health and choice of a fellow Muslim, former Borno state Governor, Senator Kashim Shettima, as running mate has remained contentious as some members of the Christian community within and even outside the party have registered their displeasure with the Muslim – Muslim ticket.
In the same vein, the performance index of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration on security is also another baggage for Asiwaju’s camp.
Atiku’s chances
The former Vice President and 2019 Presidential Candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar is a major contender and the most experienced presidential candidate. The 75-year-old Adamawa-born politician is contesting the presidency for the sixth time.
In recent times, Atiku has travelled the length and breadth of the country consulting with party faithful, friends and stakeholders to support his ambition.
Many believe with his network of friends, support and political clout accompanied by his financial war chest the Waziri Adamawa will throw his everything in the race to succeed President Buhari.
Some political pundits believe aside from age, another setback that Atiku’s ambition may face is his perceived desperation having sought office five times already.
He is also perceived as a disloyal party man who abandoned has his party severally in the quest to become president.
Another burden is the party platform given that the PDP held sway for 16 years, from 1999 to 2015, but were kicked out of government because Nigerians believed they had failed. The question on many lips is whether Nigerians can trust the PDP which is staging a return after eight years out of government.
Another factor that Atiku would have to contain with is the fact that the South-south and South-east which are traditionally strongholds of the PDP appears to be slipping away.
The rift between the PDP presidential candidate and the Rivers state Governor, Nyesom Wike, alongside other PDP governors from the regions is perceived as a great setback for the Wazirin Adamawa.
Political analysts believe that while the party would have to contend with Wike in the South-south, the LP candidate, Obi, would also encroach into the base of the party in the South-east.
Obi’s popularity unsettles Atiku, Tinubu
The former Anambra state Governor, Peter Obi, is no doubt one of the major contenders in the 2023 presidential race.
Though not the youngest Presidential candidate, at 62 Obi is much younger than his two closest rivalries, Tinubu and Atiku.
To those who believe a Christian Southerner should succeed Buhari, Obi is the answer. To others who think a South-easterner should be allowed to lead the country, the Labour Party Presidential candidate fits in their aspirations, just as he is the answer to the prayers of those who are tired of PDP and APC.
Political pundits have observed that Obi was becoming popular; however, his popularity appears to be only in a particular section of the country and without the required spread the LP cannot win.
How the candidates stand – Mohammed
A political analyst Aminu Mohammed, who described the 2023 presidential election as a 3-horse-race, maintained that the spread to win would be an issue for all the candidates.
In a phone interview with Blueprint Weekend, Mohammed said the contest was obviously between Atiku, Tinubu and Obi, adding, however, that it was more between Atiku and Tinubu.
He said, “Unlike previous elections, 2023 presidential is a 3-horse-race between Atiku, Tinubu, and Obi. So, with the excitement among all supporters of these candidates, it won’t be as easy as it has always been.”
Speaking on Atiku’s chances, the analyst said the former vice president’s chances depended on his ability to unite his party and mobilise other stakeholders across the country.
“All things being equal, most northerners are likely going to support their son, but what about the South? He queried.
When asked about the chances of the APC’s candidate, the analyst said: “Tinubu is popular too, with the power of incumbency and his party in control of most states in Nigeria and South-west in particular.
“He will win in most South-east states; some states in the North but what about in South-east, South-south and the spread? Peter Obi is becoming popular, but only in the South. Can he become the President without the spread?
“So, Tinubu and Atiku stand a better chance but the spread remains an issue. Both candidates and Obi are relying on support from their zones. Interestingly, a vote from a single region as contained in the constitution cannot make a candidate win.
“So, Atiku, Tinubu and Obi need vote from the entire country in other to win the presidential election. You must win the majority of the lawful votes cast, and win 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 states of the nation. So, this is a challenge before all these candidates.”
