One had wanted to do a follow-up on last week’s piece, titled, ‘Will COVID-19 illness humble Trump?’ For, no sooner had President Donald Trump returned to the White House after a three-day hospitalization than he himself answered that question via his speeches and actions – coronavirus illness did not humble him, for, he was back to his rambunctious self, denigrating everyone who opposes him and being economical with the truth. I believe I shall have an opportunity to return to that topic in the near future. It is often said that columnists resort to foreign topics when there is not much happening on the local scene or when they do not wish to comment on local topics for one reason or other. It is not the case here, for, the goings on in the United States of America, especially next month’s elections are of utmost interest to the world, no matter in which part of the continent you reside. The world is experiencing a Trump presidency, a presidency that is impacting our world. Our world had experienced a Napoleon, a Mussolini, a Stalin, a Hitler, a de Gaulle, a Churchill, a Mao, etc – leaders that left a legacy (for good or ill) on the sands of time. After experiencing a Hitler, world leaders vowed to themselves, ‘never again’. After experiencing a Donald J. Trump as their leader, whatever be the terminal date, will ‘great’ American undergo some societal restructuring? My thoughts are straying, let me come down home…
In the last one week much happened. Last Thursday, President Mohammadu Buhari presented the 2021 budget proposals to a joint session of the National Assembly in Abuja, the #ENDSARS protest culminated in promise to ‘disband’ the special anti-robbery squad (SARS), reform the police and the Ondo gubernatorial election was held over the weekend. Incumbent governor, Oluwarotimi Akeredolu won, highlighting the power of incumbency in our elections. Same happened in Edo and Kogi polls where incumbency factor held sway. As is his custom, President Buhari wasted no time in firing a congratulatory letter to the winner once INEC made the declaration. Though adjudged free and fair, the PDP whose candidate was second, winning only three of the 18 local government areas, insinuated that it lost because it did not have enough money to bribe voters on Election Day as did the ruling party. We heard similar complaints in Edo. All parties of course, are guilty of this malpractice of bribing voters. Still, our lawmakers have to find a way to curb this for, an election cannot be said to be credible if voters cannot exercise their free will uninfluenced. Now that Deputy Governor Agboola Ajayi’s ambition to take over from his boss, the governor, has hit the rocks, I expect his supporters in government and the state assembly, to turn their backs against him as is the norm in this part of the world. And with Akeredolu having now gotten the full mandate of the people, I expect to see some musical chairs in the state assembly in terms of changes in composition of its principal officers to strengthen the governor’s hands there.
The governor had spoken of how pained he was at the deputy governor’s “betrayal” of him. Recall that Ajayi had resigned from the APC to contest for the governorship seat under PDP. Unable to win PDP’s primary election, he defected again to the ZLP (Zenith Labour party) under which banner he contested and lost without winning any local government. Eyitayo Jegede, the PDP flag bearer was second, losing to Akeredolu by some 100,000 votes. Ajayi had refused to resign as deputy governor, even though he was hobnobbing with the opposition after his resignation from APC. I considered this immoral when I wrote about it. With the elections over, Governor Akeredolu may wish to take revenge on Ajayi for his “betrayal” by having him impeached. I urge the governor to stay action. This is difficult as you cannot have a captain and his lieutenant steering a boat in different directions. In this regard I urge Ajayi to return to the APC. This may sound ridiculous to die-hard party members but it can be done in the name of reconciliation as it had happened before elsewhere.
However, should Ajayi refuse to come back, I still urge the governor to tolerate him for the remaining few months when he and his new deputy will be sworn-in for his second tenure. I am saying that Akeredolu should not repay Ajayi’s “betrayal” with impeachment. Rather, he should repay him with good in good conscience by still harbouring him for the remainder of their first mandate which will be over shortly. Therein lies maturity.
President Buhari presented a deficit budget of N4.65 trillion to the national assembly, that is, the projected revenue was short of projected expenditure by that amount. Next year’s budget can neither be a surplus nor balanced one given that the coronavirus pandemic virtually knocked the bottom off the current budget, especially an economy like ours that is largely dependent on oil for much of its revenue. This year’s budget for example, was predicated on an oil price benchmark of $57 per barrel but had to be revised by July, to $28 per barrel. Next year’s is $40 per barrel. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for Budget 2020 was initially put at 2.93 per cent but had to be changed downwards drastically to -4.42 per cent. Now the proposed GDP growth rate in the 2021 budget estimates is three per cent. Let us hope that this is achievable, given that there is a resurgence of COVID-19 in especially European countries and elsewhere which are our major trading partners. Besides, experts aver that it will take quite some time before the world‘s economy normalizes from its effects. Oil production is pegged at a modest 1.86 million barrels per day, down from the 2020 projection of 2.18 million barrels per day that is now revised to 1.80 million barrels per day. The average exchange rate for next year’s budget is estimated to be N379 per dollar in contrast to the 2020 budget rate of N305 per dollar which was later revised to N360 per dollar as foreign exchange receipts dipped. These are of course official exchange rates. There are multiple exchange rates, in the bureau de change and parallel markets which thrive due to shortages in the official market. Currently, it is about N450 per dollar in these markets. Doubtful if all three rates can be as close as possible which is the ideal. Total expected expenditure for 2021 is put at N13.08 while total revenue is given as N8.43 trillion. Thus, the shortfall in expected revenue will have to be bridged through borrowings and aggressive revenue drive. Mr. President’s presentations were only estimates and they may have to be fine tuned by the National Assembly. Whatever, it remains to be seen whether these figures are achievable in the end given the dire situation of the world’s economy today.
Since the federal government has responded to protesters’ cry against SARS. Its continuation is unnecessary. They should take a break to see if the government will keep its promise of truly reforming the police and replacing the discredited SARS with a better outfit. If this does not happen then peaceful protests may resume. For now, it is superfluous. There is time for everything. Ikeano writes from Lafia via [email protected] 08033077519
