Rise in rice production: FAO predicts export scale down in 2020

 

 
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has predicted that rice trade in 2020 will be scaled back largely on account of downgraded imports by Nigeria.
 
The Organisation in its 2019/2020 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) outlook from its website predicted that stocks (2019/20 carry-outs) raised further, with rice exporters, in particular India and Thailand, accounting for much of the revision.
Considering four major produce (Wheat, Rice, Maize, and Soybeans), the organisation states that as 2019 draws to a close, but market uncertainties are not.
 
“From escalating trade tensions to geopolitical risks, massive swine fever outbreaks and weather abnormalities, food markets have experienced more than their fair share of unpredictability this year.
 
“However, good supply conditions and strong fundamentals have spared the four AMIS crops from much disarray, also sustaining a cautiously optimistic market outlook for 2020.
 
Rice
 
Rice 2019 production upgraded, as reductions for Thailand and Viet Nam are outweighed by improved prospects for Pakistan and several countries in Africa, in particular Egypt and Nigeria.
Its revealed further that utilization in 2019/20 raised, mostly on more buoyant expectations regarding food intake; now seen rising by 0.7% y/y on a per capita basis.
While trade in 2020 scaled back largely on account of downgraded imports by Nigeria, but also by China and Egypt.
Wheat
 
Wheat 2019 production according to the report raised, reflecting bigger harvests in the EU and Ukraine; the latest forecast points to an increase of nearly 5 percent from last year’s record level. And that utilization in 2019/20 lowered following further downgrading of feed use estimates in several countries; but still rising by 1.4 percent from the 2018/19 level driven by higher food, feed and industrial demand. Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) expected to expand by 2.3 percent from 2018/19 and reach the third highest level on record.
Stocks (ending 2020) scaled up, mostly on expectation of larger build-ups in several major exporting countries; now indicating a 3.0 percent increase over the previous season and the second highest recorded level.
 
Maize
 
Maize production in 2019 increased on improved yields in China and in Ukraine, but still 1 percent below the 2017 record. Utilization in 2019/20 remains flat with a projected decline in feed use (most significantly in China, Ukraine and the US) offsetting the overall rise in food and industrial demand.
Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) to contract but less than anticipated earlier, underpinned by stronger pace in exports from Brazil and Ukraine more than offsetting a slowdown in sales by the US.
Stocks (ending in 2020) raised by 8.5 million tones, mostly reflecting upward revisions in China, Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, the US; but still down 5.4 percent from their opening level.
 
Soybean
 
The report also shows that soybean 2019/20 production forecast trimmed, as downward adjustments in South American crops are only partially compensated by higher estimates elsewhere.
“Utilization in 2019/20 lifted marginally, underpinned primarily by upward revisions in China. 2019/20 trade forecast raised slightly on higher import demand by China, reflecting a possible recovery in soymeal demand fueled by herd rebuilding.
“Stocks (2019/20 carry-outs) lowered further on reduced forecasts in a number of countries. Global inventories poised to drop by almost one-fourth from last season’s historic record,” the report reveals.