Rough road for second term-seeking govs as Nigerians go to polls again

Today’s governorship and house of assembly elections appear to be a two-horse race between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In this report, TOPE SUNDAY, ABDULRAHMANZAKARIYAU, DANIEL AGBO, BASHIR MOHAMMED, NAJIB SANI and ANDREWOJIH x-ray factors that some of the governors seeking re-election have to brush aside to actualise their dream.

Today, Nigerians will go to polls to elect a new set of governors that will govern their respective states for the next four years except in states like Edo, Bayelsa, Ondo, Ekiti, Osun, Anambra and Kogi.

Expectedly, governorship elections will hold in 29 out of the 36 states of the federation where 11 governors are seeking re-election.

Among these governors, Blueprint Weekend predicts that seven of them who are from the northern part of the country may be walking a tight rope, while the remaining four, who are from Abia, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Cross River states, may have a smooth sail if the results of the presidential elections in the South-south and South-east geo-political zones are anything to go by.  

Adamawa

The governor of Adamawa state, Senator Muhammed Jibirila Bindow, the governorship candidate of the ruling APC, may not have it easy as he seeks second term. His closest rival, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri, appears to enjoy more support than the governor.

One of the main impediments to his re-election bid is former vice-president Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the recently conducted presidential election. He is from the state and he is the governor’s estranged political godfather.

From the outcome of the presidential and national assembly elections, where Atiku scored 410, 266 votes to defeat the All Progressives Congress (APC) Muhammadu Buhari who polled 378, 078, it is obvious that all is not well for the sitting governor.

Aside from the Atiku factor, the governor also failed to reconcile with some important stakeholders within his party since the primary election that produced him as the candidate; the “neutral” role he played in presidential election is also an issue. 

However, Bindow has the support of some indigenes of the state like the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha; wife of the president, Aisha Buhari, and others, who may curry the federal government’s support for him to stop his possible defeat.

However, a political observer in the state, Aminu Muhammed, told Blueprint Weekend that the governor may not return for some reasons.

Muhammed said, “Bindow failed to manage the crisis within his party and there are many legal issues against him, all these will affect his chances. While the PDP candidate, Fintiri’s support is waxing stronger and the candidate of the PDP in the presidential election, Atiku Abubakar will do everything possible to ensure that Bindow is defeated.”

Bauchi

In Bauchi state, the incumbent governor Mohammed Abubakar of the APC faces a fierce battle because of the strength of the candidate of the PDP, Senator Bala Mohammed, a former minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), and the speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakub Dogara, dumped the APC for the PDP. Dogara, against all odds, won his re-election for the fourth time to represent the people of the Dass/Tafawa Balewa/Bogoro federal constituency in the 9th Senate.

 Being in the ruling party may give him advantage as President Muhammadu Buhari is still very popular in the state. The party won all the three senatorial seats and most of the House of Representatives’ seats in the last presidential and national assembly elections. 

Abubakar campaigned vigorously in the 20 Local governments of the state and he has caretaker chairmen who could help him deliver their various councils.

His weaknesses 

However, one of his weaknesses is his inability to complete capital projects such as federal low-cost Bauchi roads and the Wuntin Dada to Miri road.  

The dissolution of traditional leaders appointed by his predecessor also irritated the victims and their followers and this may work against his re-election. 

Also, his failure to conduct local government election for four years contrary to his campaign promise is already being used by the opposition against him. 

Benue

In the rescheduled February 23 presidential poll, it was a very close contest between President Buhari and Atiku Abubakar. Atiku polled 355,255 votes against President Buhari’s 347,668 out of over two million registered voters in Benue state.

The candidate of the PDP, Governor Samuel Ortom, was elected on the platform of the APC in 2015, but rejoined the PDP over alleged continuous killing of his people by Fulani herdsmen without the expected security support from the federal government. Today, he is seeking a re-election on the platform of the PDP, while his close rival, Hon. Emmanuel Jime, of the APC.

While Ortom will have advantage of being a sitting governor, it may not really count without the support from the federal level, which will certainly be given to Jime. However, the major challenge before Governor Ortom’s second term bid is the issue of salary arrears for which he is despised by workers.

Many residents have openly expressed reservations over Ortom’s candidacy and ability to perform as they alleged that he has economically strangulated the state as epitomised in the inability of the state government to clear the workers’ salaries.

The governor is often accused of collecting several interventions without clearing the salary arrears.  

A former minister of state for education, Professor Jerry Àgada, said, “the problem before the re-election of the governor is mainly in the region of payment of salaries and pensions which people have been complaining about.” 


On the other hand, a political analyst who is also an indigene, James Ewaoche, stated that Ortom may emerge victorious.

He said: “Ortom may likely win because of the way he has balanced the state’s appointment since he assumed office. Since the return of democracy in 1999, Ortom is the governor that has appointed someone from Zone C as the head of service; so appointments like this will get him a block vote from the zone.

“As for Jime, what will affect his chances is the perceived poor performance of his party at federal level. In Benue state today, most people believe the APC-led federal did not give the state the much-need security support. In fact, they blame the suspected killings by Fulani herdsmen on the APC government. So, this will to a large extent, affect the chances of Jime.”


Plateau

In Plateau state, 20 candidates are jostling for the coveted seat. However, like in most states, the incumbent governor, Barrister Simon Lalong of the APC, and Senator Jeremiah Tumbut Useni of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are the major contenders.

Going by the results of the presidential and national assembly elections in the state, the candidate of the PDP, Useni, a retired army general, may smile at the end of the day.  

In the rescheduled February 23 elections, APC performed abysmally despite being the party in power. APC lost 11 out 17 local government areas to the PDP.

 Also, the APC won only three out of the eight federal constituency seats and one out of the three senatorial seats.

However, political pundits are of the view that looking at the chances and possibilities of the two candidates, Lalong may retain his seat.

Expert’s opinion

A public and political commentator, Mr. Ado Abubakar, said staff welfare may bail Lalong out, adding that “many people of the state most importantly the civil servants whose salaries are promptly paid as and when due have declared their support for the re-election of Lalong.”

He said Lalong has the 93 per cent support of the Hausa and Fulani, and if he can garner at least 35 per cent votes of the other 50 tribes in the state, it can make him win the election.

According to him, though religious factor is already in place, such factor will also favour Lalong.

“The result of the last presidential election which the PDP won with a difference of over 80,000 votes is not likely to repeat itself. This is simply because some people that did not vote for Buhari will like to vote Lalong. It happened in the 2015 elections where the Goodluck Jonathan won against Buhari, Lalong won to become governor,” he said.

Another obstacle against his re-election bid may be the killings on the Plateau which seem unabated.

 Sokoto

Another state where the incumbent may not come back is Sokoto. Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal was a member of the APC, but left the party because of what he described as the “failure of the APC and its government” and joined his former party, the PDP, to seek the party’s presidential ticket.

His closest rival, Ahmad Aliyu, who is the candidate of the APC, was the deputy governor; he resigned after the governor defected from APC to PDP.

Now, Tambuwal is literally battling with his estranged godfather, Senator Aliyu Wamakko, a former governor, who brought him to power in 2015.

In the presidential election, the APC scored 490,333 votes to defeat the PDP which polled 361,604 votes.

Tambuwal had lost a strong support base since he defected, though he also attracts more persons like a two-term former governor of the state, Attahiru Bafarawa, to his side; he still enjoys support of some people at the grassroots.

Therefore, the odds are certainly against the governor; this was why he cried out to the international community to help secure the sanctity of Saturday’s governorship and house of assembly elections across the country.

A political pundit, Ibrahim Abdulmalik, told Blueprint Weekend that Tambuwal is fighting the biggest political battle of his life.

Abdulmalik said: “Tambuwal left APC to pursue his presidential ambition. While Tambuwal will be fighting hard to win, his former deputy has a lot working in his favour. The godfather of Sokoto politics, Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, is with him and he will also get all the needed support from the federal government because his party is in charge. Today (Saturday), the people will have to decide whether Tambuwal returns or not.”

Taraba

Governor Darius Ishaku is seeking a second term on the platform of the PDP against the candidates of the APC, former acting governor of the state, Sani Danladi, and that of the United Democratic Party (UDP), Aisha Alhassan. Alhassan is a former minister of women affairs and social development. In Taraba, political analysts are of the view that unlike the 2015 elections, the 2019 elections will be a fierce contest.

Factors that will largely determine the outcome of the governorship election are religion, zoning and godfatherism. The state is considered as a Christian-dominated area, so this gives the governor an edge over Aisha and Dalandi who are Muslims. Also, the zoning arrangement that was adopted by the state political actors since the returned of democracy in 1999, from all the past governors of the state, it is established that it is the turn of Southern Taraba to be in charge for another four years.

So, this is also an advantage to Governor Ishaku who hails from Takum, Southern Taraba, against Dalandi and Aisha who are both from the northern zone.

Another factor is that former chief of army staff, Lt. Gen. TY Danjuma, is one of the major godfathers of Taraba politics, and he is an uncle to the governor. Considering his recent relationship with President Buhari, Danjuma will do everything possible for Darius to win.

But in the electoral process no one can underestimate the powers of the federal government which will surely be of advantage to Danladi, the APC candidate. While candidate of UDP, Aisha, can also surprise everyone like she did in 2015 because of her strong support base.

Ex-NYCN president speaks

The immediate past president of National Youth Council of Nigeria (NYCN) who is also a stakeholder in Taraba politics, Comrade Murtala Mohammed Garba, said the governorship election will be a judgement between performance and capacity.

“Many people in Taraba state who believe the governor, Darius Ishaku, has not performed well in terms of development are likely go to elsewhere for an alternative candidate with capacity to deliver the state.

“Though there are lots of propaganda against the top contenders, especially the former minister of women affairs candidate of UDP, Aisha Alhassan, and candidate of the APC, Sank Danladi, these two people can spring surprises in today’s election. Aisha has a strong followers and Danladi is also waxing stronger, especially with maximum support from the federal government. So, anything can happen.

Kaduna

In Kaduna state, there are many political parties that are involved in today’s race for the Government House, but obviously the contest is between the APC candidate, Governor Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, who seeking a second term and the candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Isa Ashiru.

Though the presidential election was won by President Buhari in the state with a margin of over 300,000 votes to defeat Atiku Abubakar, this was considered a very close contest and a good outing for the opposition party.

El-Rufai is considered to have performed averagely well, but there are many odds are against his chances. The first is the Muslim-Muslim ticket saga adopted by the APC in the state and it may reduce his chance in the Christian-dominated areas.

Also, his infrastructure policy which led to the demolition of many houses, education policy which also led to the sack of many, face off with the Shi’ites and security challenges may affect his re-election.

However, everything that is against El-Rufai’s chances seems to be in favour of PDP candidate who as a Muslim is favoured in Christian-dominated areas, particularly for picking a Christian as his running mate. With this some Muslims who are concerned about justice in a state like Kaduna will likely support his candidature. The sacked teachers that had threatened to vote against him may also vote for PDP. In Kaduna opposition stand a good chance to humble El -Rufai out of power.

Kano

Another state that will be very interesting to watch out for today is Kano, where the incumbent governor, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, is battling for supremacy against his estranged political godfather and ally, Dr Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso, of the PDP.

But the results of the presidential and national assembly elections in the state have doused the tension because President Buhari polled the highest votes of 1,464,4768 votes in Kano despite the structure and dominance of Kwakwanso in the state’s politics.

However, Ganduje may face a tough battle over his alleged involvement in kick-back scandal, which is now codified asGandollar.

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