Rapid population growth is the only thing going for Nigeria at the moment. The population grows at 2.6 per cent per annum even when the economy is in recession. Nigeria’s fertility rate is astounding at an average of 5.6 births per woman. The global average is a moderate 2.8 births per woman.
The unbridled population growth puts enormous pressure on every infrastructure from education to health because Nigeria does not invest in its human capital. The late Lucky Dube, a South African music maestro who was murdered by his jealous kinsmen, said in the lyrics of one of his melodious tunes that if a country does not build schools, it will build prisons.
Nigeria builds neither schools nor prisons. That is why the few prisons are bursting at the seams with over-crowding. Ikoyi Prison in Lagos was built in 1955 to accommodate 800 inmates. It is now home to well over 3, 000 inmates, including distinguished Senator Orji Uzor Kalu.
Two weeks ago an electric cable snapped, dropped inside a cell, killed five inmates and injured dozens more. Because the justice system is agonizingly slow, the population of awaiting trials in Nigerian prisons is about twice that of convicts. There are very few judges to try the thousands of cases in courts.
Federal High Courts paint a grim picture of a judicial system where the rulers are not investing even in the development of the machinery of justice. There are more than 200, 000 cases waiting to be tried by 87 judges. That explains why there are more awaiting trials than convicts in the prisons.
Nigeria can no longer attract foreign investors to its enormous market because the country risk is disproportionately high.
Between 2015 and 2019, only three per cent of the $73 billion in foreign direct investment that entered Africa came to Nigeria. Ghana attracted more foreign investments than Nigeria during the period. Last week, Nigeria’s foreign reserves dropped below $40 billion.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) lamented last month that Nigeria spends $600 million annually on the importation of cassava derivatives.
Nigeria is the world’s largest producer of cassava. Ironically, it exports raw cassava and imports cassava derivatives like ethanol. Nigeria consumes 400 million litres of ethanol annually, but produces just 22 million litres. Thailand, a country of 69 million people produces four billion litres of ethanol annually.
Foreign investors are willing to invest in ethanol plants in Thailand because the country risk is very low and the cost of doing business is such that one could produce ethanol in Thailand some 6, 000 miles away from Nigeria, pay heavily for freighting and import duty and still enter Nigerian market cheaper than locally produced ethanol.
There are two sets of investors entering Nigeria at calculated risk. The first are Indians and Lebanese who are here to join the corruption trend and loot the country in collaboration with corrupt Nigerian government officials and private sector operators. They are not genuine investors. They exploit the country’s unbridled impunity, enslave Nigerian workers and go home with millions of dollars. The economy repulses genuine investors from Europe and North America.
The second set is the Chinese. They invest in Nigeria with the aim of colonizing the country. China is investing massively in Nigeria’s rail system, airports, seaports and even roads. The Chinese know perfectly well that at the rate Nigeria is accumulating debts, it would almost certainly default because the cost of debt servicing is sailing perilously close to 50 per cent of the country’s annual revenue.
The condition for the massive investments is that if the debtor defaults, the Chinese government takes over the management of the facility built with proceeds of the debt. If Nigeria defaults in its debts and the Chinese government seizes control of the seaports, airports and rail system, it has effectively colonized the country.
China has taken firm control of Africa. About 55 years after the formation of the Organisation of African Unity, now rechristened African Union, the 54 members could not build a befitting headquarters in Ethiopia. China has eventually built a magnificent edifice for the union. But it is at a cost. Some say that the headquarters of the AU is one huge microphone that relays all the deliberations of African leaders to Beijing. That is the price Africa pays for backwardness.
The rulers of Nigeria know that the country is heading down the financial precipice.
Nigerians have lived on looted funds for almost 20 years now. Corrupt government officials looted the treasury and because the terrorists attack in the U.S. on September 11, 2001 has compelled the government of Switzerland to close its banking system against looted funds, Nigerian looters invested their loots in developing luxury estates where rents were fixed in dollars. They created jobs with the looted funds and made it possible for many to live in false comfort.
Now the standard of living has plummeted because stolen funds are not flowing as freely as they were some 10 years ago. Nigeria is paying the price of mutually assured impunity and indiscipline. The rulers and the ruled are lawless. The ruled are too docile to hold the rulers accountable for the trillions they loot. The rulers cannot enforce the law because of fears of possible revolt against the brazen looting. That explains the spate of lawlessness in the land.
I was in Ajao Estate in Lagos at the weekend and the deplorable roads in the community damaged my car extensively. Ajao Estate, home of the high and mighty, is three kilometers from Nigeria’s busiest international airport, but the roads are worse than Europe’s 18th century foot paths. The artisan who fixed my car said contract for the road was awarded to an “untouchable” politician who spent the money and refused to fix the road.
Millions of people are suffering in silence for the lawlessness of one man who should be in jail. Nigeria can only progress when impunity ends.
