The newspaper vendor prayed openly for Atiku Abubakar to become president so that money, according to him, will flow.
I wonder how, without industrial activity in every corner and bend.
It would be perilous to the ruling party if its members think little of Atiku Abubakar as they are currently doing, predicting an easy victory for President Muhammadu Buhari.
The world underestimated Donald Trump but he is president of the United States.
Many factors could make a person president of his country.
Time: however hard naysayers may try, once it is fated by the gods, there is nothing any mortal man can do.
Time could be in Atiku’s side, considering that time was also on the side of the current president who couldn’t have been president if it was not predestined to be.
Both tried and failed many times before they became their party’s flag bearers, Atiku though is a consistent turncoat.
Can the gods trust him this time with the tough job of president of Nigeria? Money: Buhari couldn’t have been president without the financial resources of backers behind the scene.
No-one can rule out the value of money in politics.
Atiku may have oiled many delegates with money more than other contenders.
But can Atiku survive the race all by himself spending personal resources without support from his party and a ruling government willing to match and surpass whatever he spends gavel to gavel? Emotions: no gain saying.
Wouldn’t emotions run high in favour of Atiku in the Southeast and Southwest? And for split votes in the Southwest where restructuring even with a complicated constitution seems to be a hot potato with Atiku a forerunner of restructuring to gain support and votes.
He knows he can’t buck the trend.
People: the people of the northeast look at the north-westerners with patrician disdain.
Would the people support Atiku, a north-easterner against Buhari, a north-westerner? It remains to be seen.
So also are the supports of the establishment players, notably some retired generals who are openly campaigning against the incumbent? Atiku at the moment is more popular than most members of the establishment.
No-one contender has been able to resonate with the people in the southern part of Nigeria as much as he has.
Such may not sit well with some of the establishment members.
Allegiance to most establishment members is interest, not nativity.
The establishment may do anything possible to ensure he doesn’t torpedo their interests.
Don’t underestimate the power of the establishment.
What chance does Buhari stand with the people in the north-central part of Nigeria? The only governor who seems to be his big fan so as to be in office is the governor of Kogi state who must churn out vitriol on anyone who says anything against the president as though that is his political contract and as if politics is war.
The incumbent factor: how well the president’s media and campaign managers present his supposed accomplishments to Nigerians for the coming elections.
So also is acceptance of same by the people will determine if he wins or loses the challenge for re-election.
My fear with the opposite party is that they do not have a national leader; neither do they have a rallying point.
This may be a deficiency.
Who will rally the troops and ensure that they stay the course to defeat the incumbent president with clear cut, consistent messages in sync with harsh realities? The international community: don’t rule them out.
They determine the internal affairs of third world countries, Nigeria inclusive.
The short term stop gap measure of the international community helps to alienate Nigerians further as they never advance causes to help the underprivileged people by holding avaricious politicians responsible for putting their snout in the trough of the gravy train thereby leaving many people browbeaten without hope for a bright future.
The next president of Nigeria will face immense problems with powerful interests groups and these problems cannot be solved by sleight-of hand.
Don’t rule out anything in politics.
Simon Abah, Abuja
