Barring any last minute turn of events, the All Progressives Congress candidate, Pastor Ize Iyamu, is primed to win Saturday’s governorship election in Edo state.
Four critical factors that will determine the outcome of the elections are in favour of the APC candidate.
These include, strong presence in key areas where large number of voters are expected to turn out, effective and active party campaign structure, candidate’s image perception by the larger percentage of the potential voters and lastly, adequate preparation for party agents/poll officers in key voting points.
A random sampling of the entire three senatorial districts of Edo shows that the APC has done a lot of groundwork in strategic planning, campaign and mass mobilisation of support for its candidate, and is now positioned to win the votes.
An opinion poll conducted by our field officers across the seven local governments in Edo South Senatorial district, where Ize Iyamu comes from reveals that the APC will win majority of the votes there.
Out of the over one million registered voters in Edo South, it is expected that eight hundred thousand of that number will participate in the voting process, of which the APC is primed to garner close to 80% of those votes, while the PDP and the other parties will scramble for the balance.
With this advantage, the APC candidate is expected to consolidate in Edo North, where the running mate, Gani Audu, and the former APC National chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, come from, there, the party is primed to rake in 70% of the likely 340,000 prospective voters out of the 549,000 plus registered voters in that zone.
This advantage in the north and south would have meant that all that will be required for the APC candidate to finish off the victory race is about 30-35% of the votes to be cast in Edo central, where the sitting governor, Obaseki, comes from, with a total of 357, 300 registered voters.
In all, the APC is expected to achieve the required 2/3rd spread in at least 13 local governments of Edo state. This implies that APC, will very likely net between 60- 65% of the entire votes that will be cast at the election on Saturday.
Obaseki will strive hard not to lose his home base because of negative perception and his less than impressive record of performance with the people.
But, given that in politics, 24 hours is still quite long enough to make things happen, the fate of the ruling PDP may have been sealed, should the present scenario remain unchanged before Saturday’s election.
Muhammad Mubarak Alabi,Abuja
