Presidential poll: Will Osinbajo, Obi sway votes for Buhari, Atiku?

The die is cast as the most populous black nation on earth, Nigerians are eager to elect its president for the next democratic dispensation. Unlike in the past, Nigerians seem to be more concerned this time about the running mates to the presidential candidates. The All Progressives Congress (APC) has the vice-president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, as its running mate, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP’s) vice-presidential candidate is Peter Obi. However, considering the fact that the two major contenders President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar are very popular in the North, the question in the minds of many Nigerians is can their running mates be the game-changer when the elections eventually gets underway? ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU seeks answers in this report.

Constitutional role of vice-president

Chapter VI (6) of the 1999 Constitution as amended gave a few explanations of who and what is expected of the vice-president. So, the running mate of any presidential candidate must be seen as someone is capable to function in line with constitutional provisions.

According to Art 136 (1): “If a person duly elected as president dies before taking and subscribing the oath of allegiance and oath of office, or is for any reason whatsoever unable to be sworn in, the person elected with him as vice-president shall be sworn in as president and he shall nominate a new vice-president who shall be appointed by the president with the approval by a simple majority of the national assembly at a joint sitting.

The constitution as amended also stated in Art 141 that “There shall be for the federation a vice-president in 142 (1) in any election to which the foregoing provisions of this part of this chapter relate, a candidate for an election to the office of President shall not be deemed to be validly nominated unless he nominates another candidate as his associate from the same political party for his running for the office of President, who is to occupy the office of vice-president and that candidate shall be deemed to have been duly elected to the office of vice-president if the candidate for an election to the office of president who nominated him as such associate is duly elected as President in accordance with the provisions aforesaid.”

Osinbajo and the South-west

Since 1999, Professor Yemi Osinbajo is the first South-westerner to occupy the office of the vice-president. The professor of law was born on March 8, 1957, in Lagos state, into the late Opeoluwa Osinbajo family. Osinbajo is also a senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN) who has risen to the highest level of his career. Having served in Lagos state executive council led by the former Lagos state governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as the attorney- general and commissioner for justice, he was picked as Gen. Muhammadu Buhari’s running mate for the 2015 presidential election and again in today’s election on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Osinbajo, a cerebral senior advocate with verse knowledge of the economy and other aspects of life, has a defining role to play in today’s election. Having married from the family of the late Yoruba leader, Obafemi Awolowo, he is indeed a force to reckon with. Also, the South-west where he hails from has a total number of six states, with 16,292,212 registered voters. These states are controlled by the APC. Also, over the years relying on a solid political structure handed over to him, by two-term former governor of Lagos, Bola Tinubu, Osinbajo has also built a strong political structure under the umbrella of what is known as Prof. Yemi Osinbajo Organisation (PYO). This no doubt was why the vice-president was able to lead a unique campaign rally across the South-west.

Commending him for his efforts, President Buhari said: ‘‘I am very pleased with his vast experience and intellect. He has captured effectively what the administration has done and I commend him for playing a very great part in that. Thank you, Mr Vice President.”

 An APC stalwart from Osun state, South-west, Ojo Jackson, told Blueprint Weekend that the zone will not just vote for Osinbajo because he is from the zone, but because of his capacity to deliver.

He said “The Yoruba in this part of the world are the most sophisticated persons when it comes to elections because of our early exposure and the growth of education. Asides this, the zone got things better under this administration, even better than during Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration and then we got it worse under Goodluck Jonathan. So, the Yoruba will queue behind APC because of Osinbajo.

“The vice-president aside from being from the South-west is also a professor of law and a senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN) which I don’t think are small achievements. Also, having served as commissioner for justice of Lagos state for eight years, a state that is twice the size of some countries in Africa, Professor Osinbajo has the knowhow, the required knowledge and experience for him to deliver.”

Obi and the South-east

The two-term former governor of Anambara state on the platform of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), Peter Obi, was born in 1961, and, therefore, is now 57-years-old. He was a director at the Guardian Express Bank, Charms Nigeria, Emerging Capital and Card Centre at various times. He is also said to have many companies to his credit.

A product of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, he has attended several educational institutions, at home and abroad, focusing mostly on business. He attended the London School of Economics to study Business Policy and Financial Management. He also attended Cambridge and Oxford’s business schools for advanced leadership programmes.

Obi is grounded in economy, and this, according to analysts, has brightened the chances of the PDP, although some PDP stakeholders in the South-east, including the deputy Senate president, Ike Ekweremadu, protested his emergence on the grounds that they were not consulted before the choice was made. After a series of meetings, they agreed and now see Obi as the hope of the South-east that has been ‘marginalised’ for a while. Obi’s emergence as the presidential running mate of the PDP for today’s election is seen by many as a potential game-changer which will sway votes for his party.

The South-east has 10,057,130 registered voters across its five states of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo. Significantly, this is the first in recent political dispensation that a South-easterner would be a vice-president if elected.

On how Obi will change the game in favour of the PDP, the party’s national publicity secretary, Kola Ologbondiyan, said his knowledge of economy and antecedents are enough to win more votes to “our side.”

He said: “Our vice-presidential candidate Peter Obi is tested and trusted. For government to function and for better economy you need someone with proven economic knowledge. Obi has the theoretical experience; he has practical experience when it comes to the economy.

That alone will make the South eastern people who are business-oriented to vote for our party.

“His records also speak volumes, don’t forget that Peter Obi was governor of Anambra state for eight years and he transformed the state; he is well-known in the industry. Unlike the APC vice- presidential candidate, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, who from commissioner of justice in Lagos became a vice-president, Obi understands how government works and knows how to manage the economy. So, with his performance as a governor, people of the zone love and will certainly vote for PDP because of his competency.”

The PDP spokesperson also said: “Another reason while the South-easterners will vote for PDP in Saturday’s (today’s) election is because he is known to be a man of integrity. He is a simple, honest and trustworthy person with capacity to deliver if voted as vice-president of Nigeria. The combination of Peter Obi and PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar will no doubt translate to victory for our party. 

Both can be game-changers – Ojo

A political analyst, Hide Ojo, said both Professor Osinbajo and Peter Obi can use their zones to change the outcome of the election.

He said: “For me, the vice-presidential candidates of the two major parties, the APC, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, and that of the PDP, Peter Obi, can bring their own political clouts to the campaign and they tilt victory in one way or the other for their principals.

“Look at Professor Yemi Osinbajo; he is an in-law to the family of Chief Obafemi Awolowo and you know he is from Ikene; so, the name of Obafemi Awolowo will open both economic and political doors for him in the South-west. And he has also served as attorney-general for eight years in Lagos – that can also count for something. He is also a professor and a lawyer; so, people in the academia may look at him as one their own. The people in the Bar, the lawyers can also say his one of their own and this is also factor. They can also say he is also a member of one of the religious groups in Nigeria, so ‘let us also vote for him.’

On the challenges Osinbajo may face in the zone, Ojo said: “However, for Osinbajo to get more votes and change the outcome is going to be a multiple strategy. Osinbajo brings his own clout, but don’t also forget that all the six states in the South-west geo-political zone are governed by the APC. The governors too may bring their influence if they decide to work for the party. Although there are challenges because of the statement credited to the president that they can vote for any governor of their choice, some governors may feel like ‘okay you want to have your own victory and leave us in the sun.’ So, they may not want to work for the interest of the party since their elections are not going to hold at the same time.

Ojo further said: “But I am sure some governors will work for the interest of the party. Having said that, you know election is based on emotions sometimes and not on reasoning or logic alone. People sometimes support a candidate because of the bragging right, he is our own. Though the performance of APC in the last three and half years has not been very satisfactory, Nigeria has become the world headquarters of poverty, unemployment has moved from 18% to 23%, we are still talking of economy coming out of recession, many of the states in the South-west owe salaries with the exemption of Lagos. However, Lagos has his own issue, especially since Ambode was denied second term ticket.”

However, Ojo said: “For Peter Obi, he comes in as somebody who recorded high-level of success during his eight years as governor of Anambara state. Then if you are talking about the South-east 2023, he looks like somebody who can be groomed to take over from his principal, if he wins and decides to do just one term. So, to the South-easterners, the last time we had a South-easterner as vice-president was during the second republic when Dr Alex Ekwueme was vice-president to Alhaji Shehu Shagari. So, the people of the South-east will want to support their own, at least if they have the Number Two position now, it will position them well for 2023.

“Peter Obi come as a prudent manager of resources, is somebody with magical touch both in business and in governance, but the challenge is that he came in from APGA to join PDP. Unfortunately, for him he was at loggerheads with his godson the governor of Anambara state, Willie Obiano, during his ambition for second term, so much so that Obiano is alleged to have said that he is not going to allow PDP to win in Anambara. And look at the height of sabotage that has taken place in that zone in the past few days; that is another thing we need to look at, what spoiler role can IPOB play in today’s election? A police station was burnt. So, these issues along with the burning of INEC offices, sensitive and non-sensitive INEC materials people may decide to boycott the election and don’t forget that the South-east zone has the lowest number of registered voters out of the six geo-political zones. this may work against them because they may not have the number to neutralise whatever number the APC may get from other zone.”

He also said: “The two zones where the running mates to the presidential candidates of APC and PDP are from can be the game-changer in this election. You know, the South-west has always been in opposition; now this is the first time they are belonging to the party at the centre. The South-east has traditionally been a PDP zone; the South-east does not have the number and because they have independent minds; similar thing is with the people of the South-west where most of them think they should not be answerable to a political godfather. Both can actually make the difference. In fact I see the South as the game changer because the North is already polarised between the two top candidates. So, it is the South-east and the South-west that can change the game in today’s election.”

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