Will Tinubu win APC primaries?


Let me start by commending the effort of the All Progressives Congress, APC, leader, Senator Asiwaju Ahmad Bola Tinubu, for his courage and braveness in declaring his intention to contest for president in the 2023 general elections. Being the first APC member to indicate interest is worthy of emulation, because it’s not easy for someone to take such action.

Indeed the upcoming general elections, to be precise the presidential election, would be different from the previous one, because those expected to emerge as flag bearers may hardly get the support the incumbent president got from the masses. Besides the ticket some of his diehard fans bought for President Muhammadu Buhari, many donated to his campaign.

Notwithstanding, it’s too early to know if the APC flag bearer for the presidency would be loved by the masses and whether the presidency will remain in the North, because the party is yet to conduct its congress. 

Despite the fact that there is no certainty that Tinubu will be the only APC presidential aspirant, I doubt if there’s anyone that can match him, because he has more influence.

But Tinubu will hardly become the party’s flag bearer, because the North doesn’t have a Christian that would get 70% of northern votes if he wins the primaries. The North has a large number of votes, and a presidential aspirant from South must bring a northerner that is acceptable which Tinubu or APC doesn’t have.

To justify my preference, let me briefly give example of some northern APC members that Tinubu may pickbring one as his running mate. They are: Yakubu Dogara (Bauchi), David Mark (Benue) and Solomon Dalung (Plateau).

These gentlemen and others that we dont know yet, will hardly help matters because they didn’t have the political clout. Besides, even Tinubu himself may face challenge from the North.

Thus, if I were Tinubu, I would lie low and endorse another southerner to come onboard, so that the seat will go to the South. A Christian/Muslim ticket would be easier for the APC to maintain than Muslim/Christian.

Let me conclude by asking some questions: Now that Tinubu has boldly declared his intention, will the party consider him? Who will be his running mate in the North and can he secure Northern votes? If Tinubu does not make it now, will he get another chance in the future?

Abubakar Muhammad Sani,Kaduna[email protected]