World Bank has warned that the world is facing its deepest global recession since World War 11 over the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine which entered its fourth month.
The Washington-based bank in its newsletter said the possibility of high global inflation could eventually result in tightened monetary policy in advanced countries which might lead to financial stress on emerging markets and developing economies.
The report also quoted the World Bank President, David Malpass, as saying that the global economy is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time.
“Even if a global recession is averted, the pain of stagflation could persist for several years- unless major supply increases are set in motion.”
The report added that growth in Sub -Saharan Africa is projected to slow to 3.7 per cent this year reflecting forecast downgrades of over 60 percent of regional economies. Price pressures, partly induced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are sharply reducing food affordability and real incomes across the regions.
“More people in SSA are expected to fall into extreme poverty, especially in countries reliant on imports of food, and fuel. Fiscal space is narrowing further as the government ramps up spending on subsidies, support to farmers, and in some countries, security. However, the impact of the war will vary across countries, as elevated commodity prices will help soften the damaging effects of high inflation in some large commodity exporters”.
Among the risks to the forecast, prolonged disruptions to food supply across the region could significantly increase poverty, hunger, and malnutrition, while persistent inflation could ignite stagflation risks and further limit policy space to support recoveries. An elevated cost of living could increase the risk of social unrest, especially in low-income countries.
