MOHAMMED MUNIRAT NASIR, in this SWOT analysis, looks at the raging battle for the soul of Zamfara between the incumbent governor – Alhaji Abdulaziz Yari, his predecessor, Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi, on one hand, and those in the smaller parties on the other
As April 11th, 2015 the date fixed for the gubernatorial elections in the country by the Independent National Electoral Commission [INEC] comes closer, the battle of who occupies Zamfara state’s seat of power is becoming interesting as two prominent politicians, namely is the incumbent governor Abdul’Azeez Yari Abubakar of the APC and former governor Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi of the PDP are poised to outwit each other through their electioneering campaigns to woo the electorate. Also in the race is Alhaji Sani Abdullahi Shinkafi of APGA.
A recourse to the history of elections in Zamfara state would indicate that in 1999 the PDP candidate, Ambassador M.Z Anka lost to a local politician, Ahmad Rufai Sani (Yariman Bakura) and in 2003, Yarima retained his seat by defeating PDP’s candidate, Colonel Bala Mande, a former military governor of Nasarawa state. Again in 2007, PDP’s candidate, Malam Yahaya AbdulKareem (a former governor of old Sokoto state, out of which Zamfara was created) lost to ANPP’s Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi – who later defected to the PDP. By 2008 and in 2011, regardless of the incumbency factor, PDP’s candidate, Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi lost to AbdulAziz Abubakar Yari of the ANPP.
Given Zamfara’s current political scenario and the towering influence of former governor Shinkafi and the incumbent governor Yari the outcome of the April 11th election, according to pundits, cannot be easily predicted. Both Aliyu Shinkafi and Yari posess the wherewithal and capabilities to emerge victorious in the election, while Sani Abdullahi Shinkafi of APGA can also become giant spoiler.
Governor AbdulAziz Yari Abubakar
The incumbent governor, Abdulaziz Yari who is the candidate of All Progressive Congress (APC), rose from being the ANPP state secretary to the state party chairman. It was from that point he proceeded to become a member of the House of Representatives between 2007 and 2011.
Since assumption of office on 29th May, 2011 has shown that he is focused and determined to transform Zamfara state as he succeeded in implementing developmental projects which, by all standards and definitions have superseded those of his predecessors put together – since the creation of the state in 1996.
The 47-year old governor has, since assuming the mantle of leadership, proven that he is a man of his own mind and vision. His emphasis has been more on physical development, which is currently resulting into what analysts variously described as total transformation of the state from a rural set-up to a modern state.
The albatross of governor Abdul’Azeez Yari Abubakar however, which might prove too costly for him during the April 11th election is his high headedness, which many believe, made him to be running Zamfara state like his personal estate.
Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi
Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi was a former deputy governor of the state under Yarima for eight years (1999 -2007) and later became governor between 2007 and 2011 – thus setting record to be the first deputy governor to serve two terms – and also the first deputy governor to succeed his boss as governor.
Shinkafi’s foray into politics started his role as the Kano state Coordinator of his elder brother’s Presidential campaign team – the Umaru Shinkafi presidential Campaign Organisation in 1992.
The former governor, who defected to the PDP from the ANPP in 2008 is believed to be a grassroots’ politician – as his defection was based on the premise that he would have successfully broken away from the domineering influence of Yarima as the governor of the state in 2007.
During his four years tenure, Shinkafi initiated many development projects in the state. Some were completed, while some others got to about 70 to 80% completion stage, notably the Millennium Hospital Gusau now completed and named Yariman Bakura Specialist Hospital Gusau; the Ministry of Finance building, Ministry Religious Affairs building; Zakkat and Endowment building; Local Government liaison offices, Ministry of Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs building; Legislative Quarters and Zamfara Investment House. Inclusive are many of the roads revoked, re-awarded and completed by Yari .
Shinkafi, despite losing to Yari in 2011 is now a crowd-puller responsible for recent growing influence of the PDP in Zamfara state. This is resulting from the maintenance of his political structures, despite loss of election in 2011.
The former governor is currently the most liked politician in Zamfara state and this may go a long way in paving way for his victory in the elections as the people as anxiously yearning for him to return due to his humane disposition.
The impediments against Shinkafi’s chances during the 11th April election is the fact that many believed that he is too weak and gentle to be a political leader hence the tag ‘go slow governor’.
Alhaji Sani Abdullahi Shinkafi
Alhaji Sani Abdullahi Shinkafi is astute politician who carved a niche for himself as the National secretary of the All Progressive Grand Alliance [APGA].
The young Shinkafi is running for the third consecutive time for the exalted position of the governor of Zamfara state having run for the position in 2007 and 2011. This time around it seems to be a bit serious as he has traversed all the 147 wards of the state seeking for support and votes during the April 11th elections. The APGA’s candidate burden is the fact that he is running one man show in the affairs of the party in Zamfara state.
At the moment, it is hard to say, with pinpoint accuracy whether the incumbency factor would play out in favour of governor Yari or whether Shinkafi could create an upset by defeating governor Yari.
